Winning The Turnover Battle

College Football Blotter Report: Reality Check

2009-10-17T13:55:00.002-05:00

At the close of the weekend, most college football teams have now played half their season. So what have we learned? What stories are people not recognizing?

1. Tim Tebow is out of the Heisman race: This one must be confusing to most people. Sports Illustrated still says Tebow is in the lead. ESPN says he is in the lead. The truth however, is that no sane voter could even give Tebow a 5th place vote if the season finished today. He has had fewer than 200 total yards in three of his five games this season. His passing numbers are way off; he is only on pace to throw for 1900 yards this year. In comparison, in his Heisman season Tebow threw for 3200 yards and had ZERO, count em, ZERO games with fewer than 200 total yards. The other huge factor working against Tebow is that he has already blown one of what may only be three Heisman showcase performances. The Gators may have won, but Tebow was unimpressive against LSU: 172 total yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Unless Tebow goes on a historic passing stretch and has a huge SEC championship game, not only does he not have any business winning the Heisman, he doesn't even deserve to be invited to New York as a finalist.

2. Colt McCoy is close to being out of the race too: Against the fluffy part of his schedule, McCoy has ranked as only the 22nd QB in the nation in QB efficiency. He has also thrown at least one interception every single game. (He has 6 INTs already, while he only had 8 all of last year) And on top of that, McCoy is putting up poor rushing numbers, averaging only 11 yards a game. (McCoy ran for over 500 yards each of the past two seasons) While McCoy has been middling thus far, unlike Tebow he has not wasted any of his showcase games as of yet, and could still jump back into the race with big games against the two Oklahoma schools. On the other hand, losing to a 3-2 Oklahoma team next week could knock him out of the race completely.

3. Iowa's resume is stronger than most think: Iowa has been a hard team to peg this year. One week they almost lose to a I-AA team; the next they are trashing an in-state rival by 30 points on the road. One week they are beating a top 5 team on the road; the next they are holding on for dear life against a Sun Belt team. So what do we know about this team? While the style points haven't been there, the resume speaks for itself; wins against 3-3 Iowa State, 3-2 Arizona, 5-1 Penn State, and 4-2 Michigan give Iowa four victories against average to above average BCS teams. Hard to argue with that.

4. TCU is going to have a better BCS case than Boise: Take a look at the schedules of Boise and TCU. If they both go undefeated, which resume looks better? TCU will have road wins against two ACC teams, a road win against BYU, and a win against Utah. Boise will have a win against Oregon, and.....and.....that's it. If Boise gets to a BCS game this year, they will be the second non-BCS school to sneak its way into the big time with close to zero on their resume (Hawaii 2007).

On the Field Heisman Rankings:
The Heisman race continues to be completely unpredictable this year, as it seems that every week a new contender falters. This week it was Greg McElroy posting a poor performance to push him out for the time being.

1. Tony Pike, Cincy: A bit of a ho-hum performance for Pike this week against Miami (Oh), but when 270 yards and 2 TDs is an off day, I think it speaks to how good of a season Pike is having.

2. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame: I really hate to put Clausen up this high before the USC game, but with a lack of strong candidates Clausen's numbers are just too huge to ignore at this point in the season. Clausen leads the nation in passing efficiency and has 1544 yards and 12 TDs in 5 games this year, albeit against weak competition.

3. Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech: Williams keeps hanging around the Heisman discussion, and the Freshman's performance is becoming harder and harder to ignore. Williams had 182 total yards and a TD against Boston College this week, and ranks fifth in the nation in rushing yards.

4. Jaquizz Rodgers, Oregon State: Quizz has quietly been racking up TDs all season for the Beavers, and added 4 more this past week against Stanford to go along with 271 total yards. A monster performance like that combined with Rodger's 13 TDs so far this year deserves at leas a one week stay in the rankings.

College Football Blotter Report: The Troy Smith Blueprint

2009-10-04T01:25:00.001-05:00

The year is 2006. Going into the college football season the Heisman favorite is an Oklahoma Sooner (Adrian Peterson). One of the other favorites is the Senior quarterback for the Florida Gators (Chris Leak). The Sooner gets injured early in the year and is knocked out of the race. The Senior Gator QB never quite lives up to expectations. As a result, the Heisman Trophy goes to the efficient, but not spectacular, QB of the undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes, Troy Smith.

Flash forward to 2009. Going into the college football season the Heisman favorite is an Oklahoma Sooner (Sam Bradford). One of the other favorites is the Senior quarterback for the Florida Gators (Tim Tebow). The Sooner gets injured early in the year and is knocked out of the race. The Senior Gator QB has not quite lived up to expectations. As a result, by the end of the year the Heisman Trophy could wind up going to this year's version of Troy Smith 2006: the efficient, but not spectacular, QB of the undefeated Alabama Crimson Tide, Greg McElroy.

In 2006 Smith benefited from a college football landscape where none of the preseason favorites for the Heisman played up to their hype, and his two biggest competitors at the end of the season (Darren McFadden and Brady Quinn) wound up playing for teams with multiple losses. Because of the field dropping back, Smith was able to win the Heisman with a season that looks a bit odd in hindsight for a Heisman winner:

- One 300 yard game

- Six games with under 200 yards passing

- 2500 passing yards

- Less than 3000 total yards

So how did Smith win it? Other than leading OSU to an unblemished record, only one individual stat stood out for Smith; his sterling touchdown to interception ratio, 30/5. Other than that, Smith was downright pedestrian. He was 38th in the nation in passing yards, and was only only fourth in his own league (behind the likes of Curtis Painter, Brian Cupito, and Drew Tate).

Smith's victory in 2006 is a blueprint for how Heisman voters react to a year without a clear cut winner; they go safe. Starting QB for the #1 team in the country is about as safe as it gets. The same thing happens in other sports as well; no clear cut MVP in baseball? High RBI guy on the best team in the league. No clear cut Cy Young winner? Pitcher with the most wins for a playoff team. No clear cut NFL MVP? Starting QB for the team with the best record. And on and on it goes.

As this year has unfolded, two things are clear in the Heisman race; the presumptive favorites are not playing as expected (Bradford, Tebow, McCoy), and nobody is stepping up to fill their place. Because of this, McElroy is in prime position to follow the Troy Smith blueprint and steal the Heisman.

Think about it; McElroy is averaging roughly 220 yards and two TDs a game, while having only thrown one INT through five games. Stretching that production out over the entire season (including an SEC championship game), McElroy's stats would wind up looking a whole lot like Smith's did in 2006; 2800 total yards, 27 total TDs, and 3 INTs. If the other contenders continue to falter (Bradford, Jacory Harris, Jahvid Best, Max Hall, and Case Keenum have all already been bounced), McElroy could find himself with the Heisman Trophy come December.

Rank Me Please

If the teams below are not ranked come tomorrow, it is about time to call your local AP voter and start lodging complaints:

1. Auburn 5-0: The Mighty Malzahns took down Tennessee Saturday night to earn their second SEC victory of the year. Those two wins coupled with a win against West Virginia and one of the nation's most prolific offenses leaves little excuse for poll voters to leave Auburn off of their ballots this week.

2. South Florida 5-0: When Matt Grothe went down in the Bulls third game of the year, most people wrote off the Bulls in the Big East. Little did they realize, the Bulls had just as dynamic of a QB waiting in the wings in BJ Daniels. The Bulls have two BCS conference wins and three road wins on their resume.

3. Wisconsin 5-0: The Badgers have shown an uncanny ability to reload year after year and keep winning. Case in point; Scott Tolzien is the 4th different starting QB in the last four years for the Badgers. Wisconsin finds themselves at 5-0, with two Big Ten wins plus a victory over Fresno State.

On the Field Heisman Rankings

Excuse me sir, could I interest you in a Heisman? It seems like nobody wants to win the trophy this year, as contender after contender falls by the wayside. Last week it was Jacory Harris and Jahvid Best posting poor performances in losses, and this week Case Keenum and the Houston Cougars lost to a UTEP team that was drilled into the ground the week before. (While Keenum did throw for over 500 yards in the game, one simple fact remains; Heisman winners don't lose to UTEP)

So where does that leave us? As discussed above, it allows Greg McElroy to continue sneaking up the board, while also opening up spots for some big stat guys. Going forward, it also allows for Tebow and McCoy to jump right back into the race, with each having a showcase game coming up in the next two weeks (Tebow vs LSU, and McCoy vs Oklahoma).

1. Tony Pike, Cincy: Seriously, is Pike the only guy that wants the trophy? Pike continued his sterling season with 270 yards and 2 TDs against Miami (OH). His next game should be his national coming out party; a nationally televised Thursday nighter on October 15th pitting his 5-0 Bearcats against BJ Daniels and the 5-0 USF Bulls.

2. Greg McElroy, Alabama: Another game, another win, another two TDs for McElroy. Next week will provide him with his first big test since the opener against Virginia Tech, as he and the Tide travel to Oxford to play Ole Miss.

3. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame: At some point Clausen and his video game numbers are too hard to ignore on a 4-1 team, averaging over 300 yards and two TDs per game. You do have to worry however, about the fact that Notre Dame has had to pull out dramatics each of the past three weeks to win by one score against three teams with a combined record of 5-10. With USC and Boston College coming up next, Clausen's stay on the Heisman list could be a short one.

4. Toby Gerhart, Stanford: Gerhart led the Cardinal to a big win this week over previously undefeated UCLA with 158 total yards and three TDs. Gerhart now leads the nation with 650 rushing yards to go along with eight TDs.

Type your summary here

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College Football Blotter Report: Preseason-itis Attacks

2009-09-27T12:09:00.006-05:00

Chaos abounded this week, as 6 of the 23 ranked teams that played falling prey to the upset bug. Or the flu bug perhaps. Or maybe even more accurately, they fell victim to the #1 cause of early season upsets; Preseason-itis.

To understand what Preseason-itis is, you must first comprehend what an upset is. On its most basic level in college football, an upset is when a game occurs wherein a ranked team loses to either a lower ranked team or an unranked team. Well, duh. You see, I have to elucidate this point because otherwise some people may not comprehend why a game like Ole' Miss losing to South Carolina was a huge upset. The #4 team in the country losing to an unranked team that had already lost once this season? Huge upset, right?

Nope.

Two pesky things get in the way of calling the Ole' Miss loss an upset; facts and logic. These two teams played last year, returned all of the same core players (minus Ole' Miss losing two first round NFL draft picks), and the result was exactly the same as it was last year; a one score South Carolina victory. So if this same Ole' Miss team lost to this same South Carolina team, why was there such a huge disparity in their rankings?

Preseason-itis.

My number one pet peeve in college football is early season polls. With the presence of these polls, voters will fall victim to one of three basic human instincts in their voting, which completely skew having an accurate poll early in the season:

1. The Desire to be Right: Filling out a ballot is a significant investment of time and reputation for a voter. So when someone goes out and puts a team like Florida #1 on their ballot in the preseason, naturally they will want to keep them there until they lose. Even if after 4 weeks it is obvious to everyone in the country that this is not the same Florida team as last year, and that Alabama is going to steamroll them by four TDs in the SEC Championship Game. (Purely hypothetical of course) This is the same kind of thinking that is occurring right now to fantasy football owners; I am certain that there are those of you out there that are holding on to LT right now, even though every logical bone in your body is telling you he is not going to do anything this year, because dammit, you spent a 3rd round pick on him and you don't want to look like an idiot.

The symptom that arises from this aspect of Preseason-itis, is the gradual creep of unworthy teams up the polls, sometimes to absurd heights. This year has seen three such instances already. Ole' Miss had ZERO reason for being ranked #4 in the country, Penn State had no business being #5, and LSU has no business being #7, much less getting moved up one or two spots this week because the two aforementioned impostors were exposed ahead of them this week. All three of these teams were able to attain these heights though, because for voters to drop them while they were winning would be to admit the one thing nobody likes to admit; that they were wrong.

2. Pack Mentality: There is a certain magic to poll voting in college football. Somehow the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll, the Harris Poll, and heck, even the "Blogger Poll" on CBS Sportsline, look stunningly alike. Why is that? Did all of these diverse groups of people make the same mistake of putting faith in Ole Miss? In Oklahoma State? In Penn State? In some ways yes, put in one big way, no. They made a different mistake; they wanted to be like everyone else. So they look at the other polls from the week before and they slot winners up (even if they looked bad) and slot winners down (even if they looked good), because that is what the group-think decrees. The reason for this is because going out on a limb is scary, and people tend to point and laugh when you do. For example, Doug Lesmerises was killed in the media this week because he casts a daring, reactive ballot in the AP poll. He committed such acts of blasphemy as ranking Florida #5 (gasp!) and ranking USC as #25 (the horror!). Funny thing is though...want to know two of the teams Doug had ranked lower than almost anyone? Penn State and Ole' Miss, who coincidentally both got "upset" this week. Mr. Lesmerises isn't looking so dumb now, is he?

3. Voting for the Story: Ah, now we are on to the big elephant in the room. Everyone sees it. Everyone knows it. Nobody wants to admit they are going it though. Why is Boise State ranked 8th in the country? Why was a garbage Notre Dame team ranked 18th earlier this year? Why was USC ranked 3rd earlier this year, after losing their starting QB, top 2 two WRs, and almost their entire linebacking corps from last year? Simply put, voters vote for the story many times, not for the teams. Non-BCS team making noise? That's a story. Perennial power rising in the rankings coming off a bad year (Notre Dame, Michigan)? That's a story.

Now here is a story nobody is talking about; for all intents and purposes, as a result of Preseason-itis, Boise State has already clinched a BCS berth. What? Boise is already solidly within the top 12, and does not have a single scary opponent left on their schedule. So on the strength of beating one ranked team (at home mind you), Boise is going to go to a BCS Bowl. The only worse case of this phenomenon was in 2007, when Hawaii went to a BCS bowl in a year when their best non-conference win was against a 4-9 PAC-10 team. Yes, that actually happened.

You see, voting on Boise this year has exhibited all three symptoms of Preseason-itis. They were ranked 14th going into the season, so they have moved up because people want to be right. They are staying in the top ten because of the pack mentality. And they are most clearly a result of voting for the story (you don't think voters aren't thinking of that Orange Bowl upset every-time they vote for Boise?), because their ranking falls victim to one huge logical flaw; they should be ranked behind TCU. Why? Well, TCU was ranked higher than Boise at the end of last year, and in fact BEAT Boise just 9 months ago in a bowl game. Yet somehow both teams are undefeated, but Boise is ranked 7 spots higher. Why? They are a better story than a TCU team that the country is not familiar with, that's why. The real problem is that if TCU does go undefeated, they would have a much stronger resume than Boise (@UVA, @Clemson, @BYU, and vs. Utah), but would fail to get a BCS bid due to poor voting habits. And that would be a true shame.

Unranked Victims of Preseason-itis:

To stay on the theme, here are four teams that should be ranked, but are being held out of the polls:

1. Iowa: While Iowa will probably be ranked by the end of the day due to their upset of Penn State, they should have already been ranked, and ranked highly. Why? Take a look at their schedule. They are 4-0, with wins over Penn State, Iowa State, and Arizona. Ok, who cares about Iowa State and Arizona? Voters should; the four teams that Iowa has beat this season are a combined 12-0 this year against teams not named Iowa. Now there is some food for thought.

2. Auburn: Auburn is 4-0, with a trip to Tennessee this week that should be another easy victory. So far this season they have defeated two BCS teams (Miss. State and West Va.), and have shown an explosive offense that has gone for totals of 37, 41, 49, and 54 points so far this season. You are telling me this team isn't better than Nebraska or UNC?

3. Wisconsin: Wisconsin always plays ugly football. They play defense, and grind it out on the ground on offense. As a result, voters never think of them as a sexy pick. The Badgers stand at 4-0 this year, playing their typical brand of un-sexy football while beating Michigan State and Fresno State already this year.

4. South Carolina: The other USC's only sin this season has been a 4 point loss on the road to a pretty good Georgia team. Other than that, they have beat a better than you think NC State team on the road, as well as "upset" #4 Ole' Miss. How are they not ranked?

On the Field Heisman Rankings:

Oh how the mighty have fallen. A big shakeup in the rankings this week, as Jacory Harris and Jahvid Best both had disastrous days in upset losses to fall out of the rankings. The real story in the Heisman race however, is that there is no story. Nobody seems to want the darn thing this year. Colt McCoy keeps throwing Interceptions. Tim Tebow has not had a single Heisman worthy game. Sam Bradford has missed to much time already to even be considered. So who is left? Tony Pike actually, the only man in the country that has looked like a Heisman winner every week thus far:

1. Tony Pike, Cincy: Pike's resume gets stronger and stronger every week. Adding to his 300+ yard, 3 TD performances over Rutgers and Oregon State earlier this season, Pike put in another outstanding performance against Fresno State. Pike passed for 300 yards and 3 TDs and added another 22 yards on the ground.

2. Case Keenum, Houston: Things didn't look too good for Case, down 28-23 to Texas Tech in the 4th quarter last night. Keenum didn't crack under pressure though, leading the Cougars on a game winning drive late in the 4th to pull ahead 29-28 against the Red Raiders. Keenum put up his typical video game numbers (457 total yards, 2 total TDs) and now has two big time performances against Big 12 teams on his resume.

3. Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech: You might be shocked to see Williams here, but the numbers don't lie; in three games against ranked opponents so far this year he has put up 412 total yards and 5 TDs. Pretty good for a Freshman that only got the job due to an injury to the incumbent.

4. Greg McElroy, Alabama: McElroy is ranked 3rd in the country in QB rating (first amongst BCS QBs) and has looked deadly for what I believe is the best team in the country. With wins against Virginia Tech and Arkansas on his resume, he is looking as good as any QB in the country.

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College Football Blotter Report: Reveal Week

2009-09-20T10:41:00.011-05:00

So this was Revenge Week eh? You know, the week where Urban Meyer was supposed to pound Lane Kiffin, Pete Carroll was supposed to trash Steve Sarkisian, and Texas was supposed to show Texas Tech the pain of missing out on a national title shot last year. That was this week right?

Whoops.

Revenge Week (you have to love ESPN for those monikers right?) evidently didn't get the invitation to the party, and at the last second another guest arrived; Reveal Week. You see, the casual fan was stunned by this week's developments. USC losing to a Washington team that was 0-11 last year? BYU getting thrashed by a Florida State squad that looked horrible against a I-AA school last week (I will never use FC$ by the way)? Florida having a much tighter game than expected? All shockers. The truth though, is that all of these results merely revealed truths that were already evident to people willing to look at the play on the field this season rather than the names on the jerseys (I'm looking at you poll voters).

First off, USC is not an elite team; not even close. After watching the USC-OSU game last week I texted a friend of mine that is a huge OSU fan to let him know what I got out of watching the game; neither team has any business being in a BCS bowl. This year's incarnation of USC is not a good offensive team. Period. They lost two of their best WRs from last year (one to injury) along with a QB that was a top 10 draft pick, and replaced that trio with a true freshman at QB and two WRs that combined for six catches last year. Why exactly were they expected to be a great offensive team this year? Oh yeah, I forgot, this is USC, and they are always good. Silly me.

And lest I forget, Matt Barkley is the next Joe Montana. I mean, he played so great in that OSU game, and led them to victory on a last second drive!

Except...that never happened.

You see, a ruse was perpetrated on the American public last week. The sports media collectively took a dead cat and tried to sell us a mink coat. The ruse: Matt Barkley had a great game, showed great poise, and was the hero of the comeback drive against OSU. The reality: Barkley had a bad game, and Joe McKnight was the hero of the winning drive. Seriously, did anyone watch that game? Just as a refresher, here are Barkley's stats:

15-31, 195 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT

Just look at those for a second, and I think you'll see what I see. Under 50% passing? Check. Under 200 yards? Check. Negative TD/INT ratio? Check. Color me confused, but I do not understand how this performance was being billed as a breakout performance for Barkley. The numbers don't lie; he played poorly. In the wake of USC's loss to Washington, almost every story on the game has noted that the 13 points and 110 passing yards are historic lows for the Trojans. Not a single story noted that those numbers were only slightly worse than last week's performance of 18 points and 195 passing yards. What that tells me (sorry Trojan fans) is that USC's passing offense is not going to get much better once Barkley returns. USC has five tough games left on their schedule (@Cal, @Notre Dame, Oregon State, @Oregon, UCLA), and it would be no surprise if they lost more than one of them.

Now that we have seen why USC losing should not have been totally unexpected, why exactly did Florida have so much trouble with Tennessee? Same song, second verse my friends. Just as voters seemed to ignore that USC lost Mark Sanchez and Patrick Turner and had little to replace them, they have also ignored the fact that Florida lost play-makers. In Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy, the Gators lost their top two receivers from a year ago, along with their top rusher not named Tebow. And the guy that was supposed to step in and be Percy Harvin 2.0, Andre Debose? Season ending surgery without playing a down. Still curious about why the Gators didn't throw 50 on the Vols? Short answer; they couldn't. This Gators team is all Tebow, all the time. Do you think SEC teams are really scared of Riley Cooper and David Nelson? Nah, me either.

While Florida should easily win the SEC East, they won't escape a schedule with LSU, Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina, and Florida State without a loss, and I doubt they have the firepower to beat Alabama in an SEC title game match-up. This Florida team looks a lot more like the 9-4 team of two years ago than the 13-1 squad of last year. At some point the voters will recognize that fact.

What You Weren't Watching:

I must confess, I have a guilty pleasure when it comes to college football. I love watching the bottom of the Top 25 throughout the season. The overachievers. The underachievers. The comeback kids. Most years, teams 21-25 are exponentially more entertaining than teams 1-5. And this week featured one of my favorite types of games; a Top 25 play-in game. Didn't see it on the schedule? Oh, it was there. Auburn-West Virgina. Two BCS conference teams in similar states of transition that found themselves at 2-0, coming off disappointing seasons and featuring question marks at key positions. For WVU; can Jarrett Brown be the next Pat White? For Auburn; can Gus Malzahn work his wizardy as offensive coordinator on an offense that was putrid last year? The winner would find themselves at 3-0, and most likely comfortably nestled into the 24th or 25th spot in the polls, after Nebraska, Utah, Georgia Tech, and Oregon State lost earlier in the day.

(Side-note: Why are people pretending Mizzou is a ranked team? They lost the two best players off a 10-4 team that lost to almost every good team they played, and have a three game stretch coming up of Nebraska-Oklahoma State-Texas. They are going 0-3 in those games, take it to the bank.)

Auburn prevailed in a shootout 41-30, a third straight impressive offensive performance for the Mighty Malzahns of Auburn Land. With a horrible Ball State team coming to town next week followed by a trip to offensively crippled Tennessee (do you think Jonathan Crompton is going to lead the Vols to 30-40 points in a single SEC game this season?), the Tigers are poised to be 5-0 heading into mid-October. Pretty good for a team that went 5-7 last year.

On the Field Heisman Rankings:

So what exactly do I mean by "on the field"? Simply put, these rankings don't factor in last year, two years ago, who you play for, or what people expected before the season. The obvious difference between these rankings and most out right now, is that you are going to see a distinct lack of Tebow and McCoy. Both QBs had their first marquee chances of the season this week, and both disappointed. Tebow had under 200 total yards against Tennessee with no passing TDs and an interception. McCoy only had 210 total yards while also posting a negative TD/INT ratio against Texas Tech. You won't see either of these guys in my rankings until they earn it on the field. Now, on to the rankings:

1. Jacory Harris, Miami (Fl.): This one is a no brainer. Two nationally televised games against ranked conference opponents. Two upset wins. Two 3 TD games by the precocious sophomore Harris. And guess what? Harris has his third straight chance this week, with another national TV shot against a ranked conference opponent in Virginia Tech.

2. Jahvid Best, Cal: In each of his first three games this year, Best has gone for 140+ yards from scrimmage and multiple TDs, highlighted by his scoring of all 5 TDs against Minnesota this weekend. Three straight big games, including two non-conference wins against BCS conference opponents, means Best is having the er...best start by any running back in the country.

3. Tony Pike, Cincy: While nobody has been watching, Pike has orchestrated two big road wins for the Bearcats, trashing Big East favorite Rutgers in Week 1 and topping a ranked Oregon State team this weekend, going for 330+ yards and 3 TDs in both contests. The only QB with a more impressive set of victories is Harris, and that is why he is #1.

4. Case Keenum, Houston: The rest of the Heisman conversation belongs to the stat kings, and Keenum has the advantage of being the only big number passer with a marquee victory this season, going for 366 yards and 4 total TDs in upsetting Oklahoma State last week.

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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Steal The Raiders

2007-08-28T00:26:00.000-05:00

Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The Myth Of LJ

2007-08-25T14:23:00.000-05:00

They Say Timing Is Everything...

2007-08-23T13:37:00.000-05:00

August 15th: Former NBA referee Tim Donaghy pleas guilty to felony charges and admits that he provided insider information about player injuries and official assignments to gamblers. Donaghy also admits that he had been betting on NBA games, including ones he had officiated, since 2003.

August 17th: Former NHL player and Phoenix Coyotes assistant Rick Tocchet is sentenced to two years probation for his involvement in an illegal gambling ring that saw millions of dollars bet on various sports.

August 22nd: AEG and Harrah's hold a press conference to announce that they are building a $500 million arena in Las Vegas set to open in 2010, with hopes of convincing an NBA and/or NHL team to come to Vegas.

Is it just me, or does the timing of this announcement seem...awful? Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think the NBA is going to go anywhere near Las Vegas for years. Not after the Donaghy scandal, and especially not after the violent debacle that was the NBA's All-Star Weekend. (We all do remember that is where Pacman's infamous strip club shooting took place, yes?)

There are three major problems in sports today; performance enhancers, athlete's bad behavior, and gambling. Vegas is known for fostering two of those three things. In fact, Vegas wouldn't even exist today if it wasn't for gambling and bad behavior. So at a time when the NBA is fighting a huge PR battle in the wake of a gambling scandal, these businessmen thought it would be a great idea to start building an arena aimed at getting an NBA team? Can I get an honorary MBA just for noting that this is an awful idea?

The NHL angle is slightly different, though just as bad. In all honesty, the NHL would likely jump at the chance to go to Vegas. Word on the street is that the NHL is attempting to expand by two more teams in the coming years, and if Vegas wants them the NHL would most likely come. The problem with that is the NHL is bleeding money. The TV ratings are almost non-existent. Attendance is down. Players are starting to leave for Russia to make more money. And somehow the NHL's solution to these problems is to expand? To dillute an already thinning talent pool? If this Vegas arena stakes itself to the NHL, it very well could go down with the ship. Hockey has already slipped to at least 4th on the American pro sports radar (behind NASCAR) and is perilously close to being overtaken by MMA with no signs of anything getting better.

Can someone please explain to me how building this $500 million arena is a good idea...at all?

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Worst. Draft. EVER.

2007-08-21T23:33:00.000-05:00

Last night SportsCenter ran their highly publicized fantasy football draft special. The idea was to have some of ESPN's football analysts do a draft so that the viewing audience could garner some insight from the "experts". It sounds like a great idea, except what actually transpired was far from what was intended.

What happened last night, was perhaps the worst fantasy football draft of all time.

The panel consisted of Chris Mortenson, Jerry O'Connell, Steve Young, Mark Schlereth, Sean Salisbury, Nick Bakay, Cato June, and Michael A. Smith. Out of that group it was glaringly obvious that only Schlereth knew much of anything about fantasy football. Just take a gander at what all of their rosters ended up looking like.

The odd final rosters only tell half the story however, as the draft itself saw the participants break almost every single rule in fantasy football. They drafted QBs in the first round. They drafted kickers before the final round. They didn't go 1-2 with RBs. They valued WRs over RBs. To put it simply, any of these guys would have finished dead last in even the most average of fantasy leagues. To explain why, here is a detailed look at some of the more horriffic mistakes that were made during the draft:

Round 1:

- Sean Salisbury selects Laurence Maroney at #5. Pretty odd considering the fact that Maroney is projected by anyone with half of a brain to be somewhere in the 8-12 range, not anywhere near #5.

- Peyton Manning goes to his former teammate Cato June at #7 which isn't really that bad considering it is an 8 team league. What happened after that however, has caused me to lose any faith in Michael A. Smith's sports knowledge. Smith was picking at the turn and had picks #8 and #9. With at least 5 elite fantasy RBs still on the board, Smith took Carson Palmer and Marvin Harrison 8-9. I repeat, Michael A. Smith went QB-WR in the first two rounds, and the QB was not Peyton Manning. Michael A. Smith knows as much about fantasy football as your grandmother, and maybe less.

Round 2:

- Cato June follows Smith's moronic moves by taking Thomas Jones at #10. Jones is not a bad fantasy back, but the pick is horrendous considering the other RBs that were still available, including...

- Shaun Alexander, who is selected at #13 by Mark Schlereth. Again, I reiterate; Schlereth is the only one in this thing with any fantasy knowledge at all.

Round 3:

- To lead off the 3rd round the 17th and 18th picks are Marc Bulger and Antonio Gates. Now, those would be good picks in a 10 or 12 team draft...if they were leading off the 4th round, with picks in the 40's. I would wager that this might be the only fantasy football draft in the nation not conducted by 9 year olds that will have Bulger and Gates both go in the top 20.

- Just so they can say that they broke the rule, our group of dunces engages in a WR position run in the 3rd round with Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, and Roy Williams going between picks 20 and 24.

Round 4:

- Our motley crew enjoyed having a position run in the 3rd round so much that they have another position run in the 4th round. This time it is the QBs, with Drew Brees, Jon Kitna, Tom Brady, and Donovan McNabb going in order from picks 27-30. Yes, that does in fact mean that Kitna was drafted at #28. Just awful.

Round 5:

- I am guessing that nobody informed these 8 guys that fantasy football success is almost entirely dependent on having good RBs. Evidently someone lied to them and told them that WRs were the key, as they engage in a SECOND WR position run in the 5th round, with T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens, Andre Johnson, and Marques Colston going in order from picks 34-39. Yes, that means that in the first 40 picks there were two WR position runs and a QB position run.

Round 6:

- Running backs? Who ever heard of drafting running backs? The awful aversion to the best position in fantasy football continues in round 6, as 7 of the 8 picks in the round are either WRs or TEs. The only sane person is Schlereth, who snatches up Clinton Portis all the way at #45.

- As for the crazy people, Michael (knows less than grandma) Smith picks up Vernon Davis with pick #41, followed by Jeremy Shockey going to Cato June with the very next pick.

- With the 45th pick Sean Salisbury takes Calvin Johnson, about 40-60 picks too soon.

Round 7:

- The position breakdown for the eight picks in round 7: 4 TEs, 2 D/ST, 2 WRs. That's right, no RBs taken between picks 49 and 56, and only one taken between picks 41-57. To understand just how bad this is, just take a gander at what happened in...

Round 8:

- So who are the RBs that are left? Julius Jones comes off the board at #58. Marshawn Lynch is picked at #62. Fred Taylor is selected at #64. It is criminal that those three lasted this long, but not nearly as bad as the fact that...

- Ronnie Brown lasts until pick #59. No, that is not a typo. That really is Ronnie Brown, at #59. The same Ronnie Brown that is being selected in the first round in some 10-12 team leagues, and the second round in every other league. The ONLY way I can explain this oversight is that the ESPN crew just forgot. It woudn't be the first time an ESPN crew forgot about a player during a draft show. Remember when Mel Kiper and company completely forgot Amobi Okoye during their mock draft show?

Round 9:

- The misses just keep on coming, as the Patriots and Chargers D/ST are selected before Ahman Green in round 9.

Round 10:

- Cato June selects Adam Vinatieri at #74. Evidently he thought that Michael A. Smith was getting too much of a lead in the "Dumbest Drafter" category and felt like he had to play catch up.

- Jamal Lewis and Jerrious Norwood finally come off the board at picks #77 and #79. Watching these "experts" do a fantasy draft is like watching a dating advice show hosted by Screech and Bill Nye the Science Guy.

Round 11:

- Round 11 sees yet another 8 picks go by without a RB being chosen, although Nick Bakay does see fit to draft Rex Grossman at #86. Yes, that sentence does mean that Rex Grossman was drafted in an 8 team fantasy league. It was the first and last time.

Round 12:

- DeAngelo Williams goes off the board at #96...finally.

Round 13:

- With all of the QBs, WRs, TEs, and D/ST that have already come off the board, you just know there is still a RB left. And...yep, there he is. Steve Young selects Carnell Williams at #99. Just to recap, a starting RB with little to no competition was drafted after 3 kickers, 5 defenses, and Rex Grossman. It is now official; ESPN's football analysts are NOT smarter than a 5th grader.

Round 14:

- Nick Bakay, the man who drafted Rex Grossman, follows up that stroke of brilliance by picking Eric Johnson with the 107th pick. If you were wondering, Johnson is a TE for the Saints.

Round 15:

- Finally, this thing is almost over. The dunces won't go down without a fight though, as they reveal their final ace when Cato June picks Chester Taylor with the second to last pick in the draft. This draft is just painful to look at.

Before you can appreciate those lowlight, you have to take a gander at some of the players that went completely undrafted during the course of this travesty;

QB:
Eli Manning
Bret Favre
Alex Smith

RB:
Brandon Jackson
Warrick Dunn
Kevin Jones
Chris Henry

WR:
Chris Chambers
Terry Glenn
Darrell Jackson
Mushin Muhammad

TE:
LJ Smith
Heath Miller

D/ST:
Vikings
Eagles
Bills

K:
Robbie Gould
Josh Scobee
Jason Elam

To understand just how bad that is, think of it this way; if you joined their league now and made a team solely of the undrafted players, you could probably still win a few games. Also, notice the fact that Drew Bennet, Santonio Holmes, and Wes Welker were all drafted, while Chambers, Glenn, Jackson, and Muhhamad were not.

So what are the lessons to be learned from this awful display of fantasy football ignorance by ESPN? First off, you should not listen to a single bit of fantasy "advice" that comes out of the mouths of an ESPN analyst. Second, ESPN does not take fantasy football seriously enough to prepare their analysts to discuss the topic. I do not exaggerate in the slightest when I say that an average high school male would have destroyed ESPN's paid "experts" in this draft. Third, don't listen to anything that Michael A. Smith has to say about NFL football. You'd be better off asking your grandma about it.

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Hayden's Sporty Birthday Bash

2007-08-21T03:17:00.000-05:00

August 21st. One of the last days of summer. Kids are going back to school. The baseball pennant chases are heating up. The football season is just around the corner. All in all, it is a wonderful time of year.

This particular August 21st however, is extra wonderful. Why you might ask? Well today is a day that only happens once in a lifetime; it is Hayden Panettiere's 18th birthday. It is a glorious day, as all of the men of America can now officially watch Heroes without being sketchy. To celebrate Hayden's birthday, we would like to remind you that Hayden's career thus far has been oddly sports centric. How so? Just take a look back at some of the roles she has played thus far:

Sheryl Yoast, Remember The Titans: In Hayden's first major motion picture role she played the football obsessed daughter of T.C. Williams football coach Bill Yoast. This film was by far the best of the films on this list, and would begin a sports centered trend that continued when Hayden played...

Channing Walsh, Racing Stripes: I'll let IMDB tell you what this movie was about;

An abandoned zebra (voice of Frankie Muniz) grows up believing he is a racehorse, and, with the help of his barnyard friends and a teenage girl (Hayden Panettiere), sets out to achieve his dream of racing with thoroughbreds.

I can assure you that this film signified the first and last time Hayden ever rode Frankie Muniz. Horse racing brings the Hayden sport total to 2 and she wasn't done yet, moving on to yet another sport in her role as...

Gen Harwood, Ice Princess: I honestly do not understand how I missed this movie. No, I am not an ice skating fan, but I don't think I have missed many films that have boasted as stout a trio of femmes as Hayden, Michelle Trachtenberg, and Kim Cattrall. I thought ice skating was supposed to be cold.

Britney Allen, Bring It On: All Or Nothing: This movie was about cheerleading. I guess. I actually haven't seen it, but that is mainly because I already saw all of the important parts of the movie in this clip:

My guess is that it is all downhill from that point.

Claire Bennet, Heroes: Hayden had such a good time playing a cheerleader in Bring It On that she decided to keep at it, this time playing a cheerleader with superhuman healing powers. Now that Hayden is on Heroes every week you don't even have to go to Target and buy Bring It On off the clearance rack to see Hayden in all her skirted glory.

Hayden, Water Sport Queen: Well, this isn't actually a movie but...I guess it adds swimming to Hayden's sports portfolio, along with football, horse racing, ice skating, and cheerleading. Hopefully Hayden continues her sports career arc, which could mean future roles for Hayden in other sports themed movies. Like maybe one about tennis. Or better yet, beach volleyball.

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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Bye, Bye

2007-08-20T22:43:00.000-05:00

Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The Good News Injury

2007-08-20T19:08:00.000-05:00

Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Final Round Sleepers

2007-08-19T00:25:00.000-05:00

Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Beware Maurice Jones-Drew

2007-08-18T00:35:00.000-05:00

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

I'm sure you've seen the commercial. You know, the ESPN one for the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame, where a fantasy owner gives a teary testimonial about how Maurice Jones-Drew won his fantasy league for him. Great commercial. The dark side of that story however, is that that commercial and the subsequent overrating of Jones-Drew in fantasy football projections is going to produce the exact opposite result this year;

Maurice Jones-Drew will make you lose your fantasy league.

To understand why this is true, you first need to understand what produced the Jones-Drew phenomena last season. Jones-Drew rushed for nearly 1,000 yards, had over 400 yards receiving, and scored a mind-boggling 16 total TDs. There are many reasons for why Jones-Drew was able to have such a high level of success. Lets take a look at the factors that culminated in the perfect storm for Jones-Drew's breakout year;

1. Leftwich's Injury: Did you ever wonder how the Jaguars were able to give both Fred Taylor and Jones'Drew so many carries last year? The reason was simple; they weren't passing. Byron Leftwich was injured and missed the final 10 games of the season, forcing David Garrard into the starting role. The offensive coaching staff did not have nearly as much confidence in Garrard as they did in Leftwich, resulting in shift in offensive philosophy over the final 10 games of the season. In the first 6 games when Leftwich was the starter, the Jags averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game. Over the final 10 games they averaged 26 pass attempts per game. The end result of the change from Leftwich to Garrard was that there were more carries for Jones-Drew, as well as an emphasis on shorter passes, i.e. to Jones-Drew.

2. Taylor's Injury: People seem to forget about this one, but Fred Taylor was injured in the Jags 13th game of the season and barely played in the final three weeks. During those three weeks Jones-Drew accumulated 25% of his TD total, 29% of his rushing total, and 24% of his receiving total.

3. Jones' Injury: This is the one that nobody is taking into consideration. Last season the Jaguar's stud FB Greg Jones missed the entire year with a torn ACL. Not familiar with him? He is 6-1 and 255 lbs of pure nasty, and happens to be one of the best short-yardage runners in the NFL. While Jones was gone last season Jones-Drew assumed the short yardage duties and scored 7 of his 13 rushing TDs from within 6 yards.

So now that we've taken a look at what made the Maurice Jones-Drew monster last year, it is time to evaluate whether or not he will be in a similar situation this year. Here is a look at some factors that lead me to believe that Jones-Drew will not have anywhere near the same kind of fantasy impact this season:

1. Leftwich Returns: Remember how Jones-Drew emerged last season after the Jags lost Leftwich and became a run based offense? Well, Byron is back and healthy this year so that should reduce Jones-Drew's number of carries. Also keep in mind that Leftwich is also in a contract year, so an even greater emphasis might be put on the pass.

2. Jones Returns: Those 7 short yardage TDs that Jones-Drew scored last year? This year those carries will be going to Greg Jones. Right off the bat that takes away a ton of Jones-Drew's fantasy appeal. It is pretty hard to expect a backup running back to score a lot of TDs when he no longer will be getting the goal-line carries.

3. Taylor Remains: People seem to forget that Fred Taylor is still on the Jags, and that he is still their starter at RB. Not only that, he is still very productive. Last year he averaged a career best 5.0 yards per carry while gaining over 1,100 yards. Taylor also recently signed a contract extension through 2010, so anyone that thinks that Jones-Drew is going to be taking any of the starter carries away from Taylor this year needs to wake up.

4. Introducing Dirk Koetter: Dirk Koetter...that name sounds really familiar. Oh yeah, he was the coach at Arizona State for the past 6 years until he was fired last October. Oh, and he also happens to be the new offensive coordinator for the Jaguars this season. Now if any of you remember Arizona State's offense from the past 6 years you'll remember one key thing; they passed, and they passed a whole lot. Koetter runs an offense that is based on the vertical passing game, one that seems well-suited to a team that has Byron Leftwich and high draft picks such as Matt Jones, Ernest Wilford, Reggie Williams, and Marcedes Lewis to whom to throw passes. What this means is that the Jaguars are going to be throwing a lot more this season than they did last year. Last season the Jaguars threw 446 times while rushing 513 times. Now lets take a look at the pass / run split from the Jags' first pre-season game with Koetter in charge of the offense; 39 passes, 29 rushes. Besides the general tendency towards passing, Koetter's offenses have also been very kind to TEs. What that means is that Marcedes Lewis will likely get a large number of the short to medium range looks that would have otherwise gone to Jones-Drew.

Now lets play connect the dots. The Jags starter at QB is back and the new offensive coordinator loves to pass almost as much as Mike Martz and Dennis Green, so that means that the Jags will have fewer total rushing attempts. Greg Jones is back, which means that not only will he cut into Jones-Drew's total rushing attempts, but he will also take away the cheap short yardage TDs that Jones-Drew had so many of last season. Throw on top of that the fact that Fred Taylor is still the starter and that the new offensive coordinator loves passing to TEs in the intermediate passing game and I think it is pretty easy to see that Maurice Jones-Drew is in a situation where he is going to see his total carries, rushing TDs, and his role in the passing games drastically reduced.

So how is it that ESPN and Yahoo are ranking him as a 2nd round pick in fantasy?

To answer that question you must examine what stats those two sources are projecting for Jones-Drew this season. ESPN has him ranked as the #21 overall fantasy player, and has the following stat projections;

141 ATT, 823 YDS, 49 REC, 476 YDS, 8 Total TDs

With the emphasis on the passing game and the increased competition for backfield carries the 8 total TDs is a tad high for my taste. What is really absurd here however, is the fact that these projections assume that Jones-Drew is going to average 5.8 yards per carry. If you reduce that number to a more reasonable projection of 5.0 yards per carry than the projected rushing yards plummet to 700. The 49 receptions also seem a bit high considering that Koetter likes the TE better in the intermediate passing game, and the fact that Greg Jones may well be a better receiving option out of the backfield than Jones-Drew.

Yahoo has an even rosier projection for Jones-Drew, ranking him #16 overall with the following stat line:

1,172 YDS rushing, 111 YDS receiving, 13 total TDs (12.5 rushing)

Those projections, to put it kindly, are insane. To approach that number of rushing yards Jones-Drew would have to get 200 carries while averaging over 5.0 yards per carry. Jones-Drew is not going to even sniff that number of carries this year. No way, no how. The more asinine part of the projection is the 12-13 rushing TDs. For the reasons listed above, Jones-Drew is very unlikely to be near that ballpark.

So what do I think Jones-Drew's stats will look like this year? This would be my estimate;

700 YDS rushing, 350 YDS receiving, 5 total TDs

What that comes out to is 135 fantasy points. I don't know about you, but I think there are a lot of players in the first or second round that are going to get me more than 135 fantasy points. So don't say that you haven't been warned; taking Maurice Jones-Drew with a high pick is going to kill your fantasy team.

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Holliday Will Not Be MVP

2007-08-17T16:07:00.000-05:00

We all know that the AL MVP race is down to Magglio and A-Rod. What about the NL race? Some people (Including USA Today, The Denver Post, and the guys at Epic Carnival) have been talking up Matt Holliday recently. Why so much love for Holliday? For one thing, there is no other consensus favorite. Injuries and slumps have take a number of perrenial NL stars out of the running for the MVP award. Let's take a look at Holliday's MVP resume (NL rank in parenthesis):

Holliday:
BA: .338 (2nd)
HR: 21 (14th)
RBI: 95 (3rd)
Team: 62-58 (3rd in NL West)

Holliday's numbers are impressive. He is both hitting for average and driving in runs at an elite rate. There are a number of factors however, that are going to keep him from ever coming close to the NL MVP:

The Coor's Bias: Anyone that has been a baseball fan in the past decade knows that Coor's Field turns good hitters into great hitters. It's a proven fact, and whether it is fair to Holliday or not his numbers this year are going to be viewed by many as being Coor's inflated. The obvious question then, is whether or not his numbers are indeed inflated. Here is a look at Holliday's home and away splits this season:

Home: .378, 15 HR, 55 RBI
Away: .298, 6 HR, 38 RBI

As you can see, there is a huge gap between Holliday's home and away numbers. The Coor's bias has set in among MVP voters ever since Larry Walker won the 1997 award. Don't believe me? Take a look at Todd Helton's line in 2000, when the Rockies went 82-80 overall and 34-47 on the road:

Helton: .372 (1st), 42 HR (7th), 147 RBI (1st)

Helton came within 8 homers of the triple crown that year for a team with a winning record. Where did he finish in the MVP balloting? 5th. If a near triple crown year for a winning team couldn't win Helton an MVP, Holliday has no chance at all.

Playoff Bias: As it stands right now Holliday and the Rockies stand 6 games out of the NL West lead and 3 games out of the NL Wild Card. If you took a straw poll, most people would say that the Rockies will be sitting out the playoffs this year. So how does that impact Holliday's MVP chances? In the past decade 15 of the 20 MVPs have come from playoff teams. The five players to accomplish that feat were Ryan Howard, Larry Walker, A-Rod, and Barry Bonds twice. That is pretty elite company, company with which Holliday does not seem to fit.

Homer Bias: The one downside of Holliday's numbers is his somewhat lackluster home run total (for an MVP candidate). Holliday currently stands 14th in the NL in HR and is on pace to hit 29 for the season. In the past 15 years only 3 of the 30 MVPs have had fewer than 30 homers; Ichiro, Barry Larkin, and Dennis Eckersly. They say that chicks dig the long ball, but it might be true that MVP voters dig it even more.

Now take a look at all three of those biases together. If Holliday were to win the MVP as a Rockie, on a non playoff team, while hitting fewer than 30 HR it would not only be suprising it would be historically significant. (The last player to be named MVP from a non-playoff team while hitting under 30 HR was Robin Yount in 1989) I'd say the smart money right now on NL MVP would be on Ryan Howard, Jake Peavy, and whoever makes the playoffs between Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.

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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The QB Cliff

2007-08-16T15:26:00.000-05:00

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

Every fantasy football player knows that running back is the most important position to fill in fantasy football. Even if you are stacked at RB however, your team can be hamstrung if you don't have a viable starter at quarterback. So who do you need to take this year to ensure yourself a good shot at winning your league? More so than many other years, the answer is simple; take one of these six QBs:

Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Carson Palmer
Tom Brady
Marc Bulger
Donovan McNabb

In ESPN live drafts thus far all of these QBs have been off the board on average by the 40th pick. So it will cost you a 1st-4th round pick to do it, but you'll be set at the QB spot all season with one of these guys. If you pass on the members of the above group, the production drop-off is extremely steep after McNabb. In ESPN drafts the next QB drafted is Matt Hasselbeck, at an average pick of 55.2. The QB cliff is so steep in fact, that only four other QBs not in the top six (Hasselbeck, Vince Young, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo) even have an average pick in the first eight rounds of ESPN drafts. Yahoo drafts are seeing a similar pattern, with the only real difference being the inclusion of Jon Kitna in the first 80 picks on average.

As far as the production drop-off after the top six, just go take a look at last year's final fantasy stats for QBs. There is a clear divide after the top six, so grabbing one of them gives you a tremendous advantage at the QB spot over 4-6 of the other teams in your league, depending on size. Think of it this way; if you go RB-RB-WR with your first three picks, how can you justify taking a guy like Brandon Jacobs, Randy Moss, Marion Barber III, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, or Ahman Green if Bulger and McNabb are still on the table? The talent drop-off between third and fourth tier RBs and second and third tier WRs is not nearly as steep as the drop-off at QB after the big six, so unless you have a dynamite sleeper pick you are better off going QB by round 4.

Now on to two QBs I think are overrated and two I think are great sleepers for this year;

You'll Be Dissapointed In:

Vince Young: I really can't remember a fantasy QB being as vastly overrated going into a season as Vince Young is this year. ESPN has him rated 8th among QBs, and Yahoo has him ranked 7th. Why do they have him ranked so high? If you delve deeper into the projections each site has for Young, the answer becomes glaringly obvious. ESPN has Young projected for 7 rushing TDs this season, and Yahoo has him down for 8.7. Unless Young hits those totals (good for 42-54 fantasy points) there is no way on earth you can project him as a top ten QB. He lost his workhorse RB in Travis Henry and the team just isn't very talented at WR, especially after losing Drew Bennett to the Rams this offseason. So just how crazy is it to assume Young will have 7-9 rushing TDs? Let me put it like this; Mike Vick has a career high of 8 rushing TDs, and only 21 total rushing TDs in his entire six year career. You're telling me I should just assume then that Vince Young is more of a socring threat on the ground than Vick? I'll pass on that one thank you.

Matt Leinart: Leinart is one of the middle of the pack QBs in fantasy this season, and if you want to take a flier on him as a backup he really isn't that bad of a choice. Penciling him in as your starter though, is a recipe for disaster. Most casual fans probably don't realize the impact that the head coaching change in Arizona from Dennis Green to Ken Whisenhunt will have on the Cardinals' offense this year. Green is known for running a high flying aerial offense, one that made both Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald into fantasy stars in recent years. As for Whisenhunt? Um...have you watched a Steelers game in the last few years? In Whisenhunt's three seasons in charge of the Steelers' offense Pittsburgh ranked in the top ten in rushing yards every single year, and in the top ten in passing yards only once. Translation; More Edge, less Leinart now that Whisenhunt is at the helm.

You'll Be Suprised By:

Jon Kitna: Do you want to know how good Kitna is going to be this year? Just think about it logically for a second. Last year he threw for over 4200 yards, had 20+ TDs, and ranked 7th among all QBs in total fantasy points last season, even with Kevin Jones missing a third of the year. During the offseason the Lions added Tatum Bell, TJ Duckett, and most notably Calvin Johnson to the fold. Add the fact that Kitna is operating in a Mike Martz offense, and his numbers should be just as good if not better this year, right? You'd be wrong, at least according to ESPN's fantasy projections. ESPN has Kitna porjected to throw for 3 fewer TDs and 900 fewer yards than last year. That has to be a mistake on their part. The Lions' offense loses nothing, and in fact adds three new weapons, and they are projected to be markedly worse? Did someone forget to tell ESPN that Mike Martz loves throwing to RBs, so Tatum Bell coming into town is actually a good thing for the Lions' passing offense? All of that doesn't even take into account that the Lions also made huge improvements at both LG and RT by acquiring Edwin Mulitalo and George Foster, respectively. What that all adds up to is this; Kitna could BLOW UP this season, to the point where he might even challenge for a spot in the big six listed above. If you can pick him up as your backup, or have the cajones to wait on him as your starter, you could come out looking like a genius.

Brett Favre: Go ahead and laugh. I am fully aware that Brett Favre has lost a ton of accuracy in recent years, and now throws interceptions by the bunch. That does not mean however, that he is no longer a viable starter in fantasy, especially in 12 team leagues. Just look at the numbers. Favre was 8th in total fantasy points among QBs last year and threw more passes than any QB in the league. Those numbers don't look like the will change much this season. The Packers will continue throwing like crazy now that Ahman Green is gone, and the WR corps is actually improved now that Greg Jennings has a year under his belt and #3 WR Robert Ferguson is returning after missing almost all of last year. Feel free to sleep on Favre, most people will. Some people however, might realize that getting a potential starting QB in the 13th round isn't such a bad deal.

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Agree To Disagree

2007-08-16T13:37:00.000-05:00

When the Mike Vick dog-fighting scandal first broke, I didn't quite understand how opinions had become quite so polarized on the issue. There was one side that believed that Vick was guilty as sin, and as such should be kicked off of the Falcons and banned from football for life. On the flip side, there seemed to be a camp that refused to say if he was guilty, and thought that due process should have allowed Vick to play through the season. How is there such a chasm on this issue? The explanation is quite simple really, and if people would take a moment to examine what everyone else is saying they'd see that in this case differing opinions aren't contradictory opinions.

Guilty or Not Guilty: The first great divide in the Vick debate seems fairly straight forward. There is a camp of people that sees seven witnesses ready to testify against Vick, physical evidence of dogfighting at a house that Vick owned, and a money trail so large that it could only lead back to a rich person and comes to the conclusion "I think Vick did it". That is ok, mainly because people's opinions do not have a hard and fast standard of certainty. I have the right to believe something that I see as having a 51% probability of being true. You have the right to believe something you see as having a 1% probability of being true.

While we live in a country that does allow people to form whatever opinion they wish, we also live in a country that operates on the standard of "reasonable doubt" when it comes to guilt in a court case. So...what exactly is "reasonable doubt"? Here is the best definition, as well as the most helpful one in applying the concept to the Vick case; "any doubt which would make a reasonable person hesitate in the most important of his or her affairs." Now for those of you that think Vick is guilty (myself included), ask yourself this question; If your life / family / fortune was on the line, and it depended on correctly answering whether or not Mike Vick was guilty of all of the dog-fighting charges against him, would you hesitate? I know I would, because I haven't seen the evidence in the case. I haven't heard exactly what the witnesses against Vick have to say. I wasn't there, and neither were you (hopefully). In other words, I agree with the people that say that we shouldn't crucify Vick just yet and that we should let the . And I also agree with the people that think Vick is guilty.

Business vs. Fairness: The second aspect of the Vick debate is perhaps the more contentious one. The people that think that the judgement of Vick should be held off till trial also generally believe that Vick shouldn't have his job taken away from him without being convicted of anything. Is it "fair" to get rid of Vick before he is convicted? In the end, probably not. Is it smart business to get rid of Vick right now? Absolutely. You see, the NFL and the Atlanta Falcons don't have to abide by the principle of reasonable doubt. The NFL doesn't have to wait for a conviction to suspend Vick, and the Falcons don't have to let him play in the meantime even if he isn't suspended. In fact, the Falcons would be insane to let him play. Can you imagine the protests? The distractions? The difficulty of Vick preparing for games during the leadup to his trial? The Falcons would lose money, games, and PR points if they let Vick play. Is it fair to him considering that he hasn't been convicted? Nope, but life isn't fair. Look at it this way; let's say you own a 7-11. One day one of your workers (we'll call him Dua for this theoretical) is arrested and charged with dog-fighting. The story makes the front page of your local paper the next day. Now do you let "Dua the Dog-Fighter" continue coming to work until his, knowing that him working at your store will drive away business and perhaps bring harm to both Dua and your property? Of course not. You tell the guy to stay home. Easy choice there, and also an easy choice for the Falcons in this situation. Business decisions don't have to be fair, they just have to be smart.

So are all of these opinions different? Of course. Are they irreconcilable though? No. Maybe now we can all just agree to disagree, with a little better understanding of where everyone else is coming from with their opinions.

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And...I'm Back

2007-08-16T13:29:00.000-05:00

Hello everyone. Sorry for the longer than expected absence, I stayed at my girlfriend's for an extra day because...well, she is my girlfriend, I don't need a reason for staying an extra day. I am back now though, and I am ready to resume my regular blogging schedule. Coming up I'll have a post on the Mike Vick situation, followed by a fantasy football series, and then hopefully Ben will have something "Out of Right Field" coming soon.

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This, Your Parting Gift

2007-08-10T03:28:00.000-05:00

OK all, I am heading up to DC for the next 4-5 days so in all likelihood I will be doing little to no posting while I am visiting my lovely girlfriend. As I hit the road though, I just wanted to take this opportunity to thank all of the great people I have come across in these past four months while doing the blog. I started writing it on a whim because I was ticked off that Marty Schottenheimer was fired, and since then it has turned into a super fun and fulfilling experience. I just want to give thanks to everyone that has dropped by to read, and I hope you found at least something that was of minute interest while you were here. I also want to thank everyone that has been gracious enough to throw some links my way, you guys are all sweethearts. I also want to say an extra special thanks to Dustyn (Sons of Sam Malone), Sooze (Babes Love Baseball), Don (With Malice...), Brian (One More Dying Quail), and the rest of the late night crew at Epic Carnival for some of the more entertaning e-mail threads I have ever had the pleasure of taking part in.

Now on to that gift I mentioned in the title of the post. While looking at the Dlisted website yesterday at the "Derek Jeter gave Jessica Alba herpes" story I came across this story about Clay Aiken. Clay looks a whole lot different than he used to, in fact he looks EXACTLY like someone we all know and love; the esteemed Will Leitch.

Will

Clay

Have a good weekend everyone.

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Don't Forget Bronko

2007-08-10T00:57:00.000-05:00

In the wake of Pacman Jones' pro wrestling debut a number of names have been invoked in discussions about pro athletes gone pro wrestler. Karl Malone. Lawrence Taylor. Even Bill Goldberg. There is one name that has been left out however, and it is the man who was both the greatest pro athlete to wrestle, as well as the greatest wrestler who happened to be a pro athlete. Who is this forgotten man?

Bronko Nagurski.

You see, Bronko didn't just moonlight in pro wrestling like Malone and Taylor. Nagurski wrestled on and off for 25 years, from 1935-1960. He is also the most decorated athlete ever to turn pro wrestler, having been one of the charter members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame as well as being the only college football player ever to be named an All-American at two different positions in the same season. In the pros Nagurski made All Pro at three different positions and helped lead the Bears to two championships.

Where things got interesting with Nagurski was in 1938 when Nagurski retired from football mainly because he couldn't get a raise and could make more money in pro wrestling. Nagurski went on to become one of the greatest pro wrestlers of his era, winning the world championship three different times.

In a nutshell, Bronko's wrestling and football prominence would be equal to a player like Brett Favre today suddenly retiring from the NFL and going on to become one of the most popular pro wrestlers. Actually, now that you mention it...that doesn't sound like a half bad idea...

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That Has To Hurt

2007-08-09T04:48:00.000-05:00

Sometimes gymnastics is fun to watch. This is one of those times.

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The Greatest

2007-08-08T19:33:00.000-05:00

Now that Barry Bonds has broken Hank Aaron's home run record the discourse among sportswriters has turned to the question of who is the greatest home run hitter of all time. Is it Bonds because he technically holds the record? Or is it Aaron, due to Bonds' performance coming in the steroid era while Aaron's occured in a pitcher's era? Or is it someone else?

The answer may suprise you...because there is no concrete answer. Determining who is "the greatest" home run hitter of all time depends upon what aspect of home run hitting you view as most important. Is it the raw numbers? Is it consistency? Is it efficiency? Is it regularity? Is it a comparison to the competition? The answer to each of those five questions is different, which is precisely why there is no singular home run king; there are five.

The All Time Champ: Barry Bonds
No matter how certain anyone is that Barry took steroids / the clear / the cream / HGH the fact remains that he has never tested positive for any performance enhancers, and he will never admit to it. Therefore there is never going to be an asterisk affixed to Bonds' record, just like there will be no asterisk affixed to any of the other records set during the steroid era. Though some people would like you to believe that Bonds is the only villain in all of this, there are more players than you can count that have been using HGH, steroids, and greenies over the past two decades. Likewise, throughout baseball history players have scuffed balls, spit on balls, stolen signs, corked bats, and used too much pine tar. Point being, if you took away every single stat ever accumulated by a baseball player accussed of cheating, you wouldn't be left with much of a record book. I'm not saying that it is right; I'm just saying that is the way it has always been, and until there is a complete and itemized overhaul of every single baseball record people need to lay off the asterisk talk. So if the raw numbers are what is most important to you, than Barry's body of work clearly makes him the greatest home run hitter of all time because like it or not his record will be staring back at you everytime you open the record book. Without an asterisk.

The King of Consistency: Hank Aaron
You think Bonds' raw numbers are inflated? OK. Lets say that the most important aspect of home run hitting to you is consistency. If so, Hank Aaron is your pick as the greatest home run hitter of all time. Aaron not only holds the record for most twenty-homer seasons (20), he also did them all in a row. During the peak years of Aaron's career he hit between 24-47 home runs every single year, and his career average per 162 games was 37 home runs. Aaron was a devastatingly efficient home run machine. He never had a 50 homer season, but he never had a single digit one either. If that sounds like the kind of thing you value as great, then feel free to declare Aaron the greatest. There are plenty of people that would agree with you.

The Juggernaut: Babe Ruth
Although Ruth stands at #3 on the all time home run list his home run feats are perhaps far more legendary than either of the two men in front of him on that list. The stats are well known; Ruth held the all-time home run record for an astounding 53 years. He held the single season mark for 34 years. He lead his league in homers 12 times. In both 1927 and 1920 Ruth hit more home runs than any other AL team. These are feats that likely will never be matched for the rest of history. There is no disputing the fact that Ruth is the most singular home run talent of any given era. Is that what makes a man the greatest home ru hitter of all time? That is for you to decide.

The Deadliest: Mark McGwire
The above metrics still aren't tickling your fancy? How anout this rubric for deciding the greatest; at bats per home run. By that measure Mark McGwire is the greatest home run hitter of all time, and it isn't even close. Just take a look at the top five AB/HR guys of all time:

1. Mark McGwire 10.61
2. Babe Ruth 11.76
3. Barry Bonds 12.93
4. Jim Thome 13.64
5. Ralph Kiner 14.11

McGwire's dominance in this category is tremendous. Big Mac also has three of the top four single seasons in thi category, trailing only Barry Bonds' record setting 2001 season. What this means is that if you had to pick one man to hit a home run in any given at bat, history would say that McGwire would be your man. And it isn't even close.

The Efficiency Expert: Ted Williams
This might be the category you wouldn't think of right off the bat, and it is the one of the most effecient home run hitter in regards to at bats per strikeout. Why this category? The evil twin to every home run is the strikeout, and shouldn't an argument about the greatest hitter of all time also factor in which power hitter was best able to be Dr. Jekyll without turning into Mr. Hyde? In looking at this stat for the hitters in the 500 home run club, one man stands out from the pack; Ted Williams. Williams only struck out once every 10.87 ABs during his career. While that number isn't great for a normal hitter, it is phenomenal for a power hitter. In a way you can view this statistic as showing who was the best natural home run hitter, the player that didn't need to take chances and swing from his heels in order to hit the round-tripper. If that sounds like greatness to you, Teddy Ballgame is your greatest home run hitter.

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Darren McFadden Is A Clown

2007-08-08T01:58:00.000-05:00

Remember those crazy qoutes about Darren McFadden that came out during the SEC Media Days in July? Just in case you don't, here is a little refresher:

"Last Halloween, the most recognizable 19-year-old in the state went to his classes in complete disguise. Wearing a clown suit, complete with rainbow wig, oversized glasses, a fake cigar, striped shirt, enormous yellow pants and wide suspenders, McFadden could have struck a Heisman pose and still remained anonymous."

Man, that sounds hysterical. Too bad no pictures ever turned up of tha...wait, you found what?

That's right, here is Darren McFadden in all his be-clowned glory. Enjoy. (Click for a larger version)

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OJ Is Having A Bad Week

2007-08-07T20:23:00.000-05:00

As if getting heckled during an interview wasn't bad enough for OJ Simpson, there is more bad news. In fact, there are all sorts of OJ stories floating around right now. To recap:

You're With Me, Killer: Now this one is just too strange. The fat kid from the upcoming movie SuperBad (AKA, Jonah Hill) is saying that OJ stole a woman from him at a nightclub in Miami. In Jonah's own words:

"All of a sudden O.J. Simpson walks by - in the nightclub. She looks at O.J., then she looks back at me and she says, 'Peace,' and then walks away and starts dancing with O.J. "He's famous for killing women and their friends! That's how pathetic I am. A night with O.J. and possibly getting murdered is better than some sort of sexual experience with me."

This is no game: The Juice's likeness is featured in the new video game All-Pro Football 2K8, which evidently does not sit well with the family of Ron Goldman on a number of levels. In fact, they have gone to court over it in connection to their 1994 wrongful death suit and won:

"Under the order issued by Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Gerald Rosenberg, any earnings to Simpson that "have been paid, are due or may be due in the future" for use of his image and likeness in the video game must be turned over to the Goldman estate.

Moreover, Simpson was ordered to turn over copies of his Take-Two contract and related documents, as well as any other financial deals he has yet to disclose."

The ruling does not however, prevent anyone who owns the game from putting OJ on the team named "The Assassins" whose mascot is "a hooded figure who makes stabbing motions with a large knife in the end zone when the Assassins score". You know Take Two if you really want to put a dent in Madden's market dominance you might try not turning your game into a PR nightmare. I hear it helps.

He did it!!!: No, I'm not talking about the murders, I'm talking about the aborted book "If I Did It". OJ had tried to say that he was just a reluctant participant in the entire enterprise, but the ghostwriter of the book is speaking out and saying OJ had the idea in the first place:

"OJ read the book, his book, several times. I made every change he asked for, and he signed off on it," Fenjves, a Hollywood screenwriter told Reuters.

"The whole book, the whole idea for a book, originated with OJ Simpson and a couple of his handlers," he said."

Like I said. Not a good week for the Juice.

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Black Flag Is Your New Anti-Hero

2007-08-07T17:05:00.000-05:00

I have a confession. I don't really follow NASCAR that much. I will watch a race here and there, and they can be enjoyable, but the sport has never really captivated me in the same way as the Big Three sports. Well my friends, that may well have changed. I now have a favorite NASCAR driver, and his name is Robby Gordon.

Why Robby Gordon you might ask? He has cajones, that is why. He is a BAMF, as it were. Just look at what happened at this weekend's Busch Series race. I'll let Robby's wikipedia page recap the action for you:

"2007 Montreal Incident
During the inaugural NAPA Auto Parts 200 at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, Gordon was involved in an on-circuit altercation with fellow driver Marcos Ambrose. Gordon passed Ambrose to take the lead at the same time as a multi-car wreck was unfolding behind them; Ambrose spun him, under a yellow flag, to reclaim it seconds later. After an unusually long delay in sorting out the field for the restart, NASCAR eventually determined that Gordon would restart in 13th position. Gordon, who had a strong race all day, refused to go to that position, and was black flagged after the restart, and after spinning out Ambrose. Gordon did not come in for his penalty and was subsequently disqualified and given the final finishing position of 18th. Following the race, Gordon proceeded to do burnouts on the front straightaway as if celebrating his victory, alongside race winner Kevin Harvick. He announced in a post-race interview that he would appeal the result of the race. However, NASCAR suspended Gordon for the following day's race at Pocono. In a statement released soon after the NASCAR announcement, Gordon apologized for his actions but maintained that NASCAR made a mistake in telling him to line up in the 13th position."

In case the words aren't enough for you, here is the video featuring both spin-outs and the dueling burnouts:

I have to admit, I think this is awesome. If you watch the video it is pretty obvious that Robby was cheated out of first place on the caution by Ambrose, so why not take back that pound of flesh back? NASCAR already has its pretty boy in Jeff Gordon and who better to be "Bizarro Jeff Gordon" than a guy with the same surname? And don't think that Robby is just a flash in the pan; he also had my all-time favorite NASCAR incident back in 2005 when he walked on the track like a mad man to chuck his helmet at Michael Waltrip after Waltrip crashed him. Here is the video:

WTB salutes you Robby Gordon, and we will do our best to make sure your sweet new nickname spreads like wildfire; Black Flag.

(By the way...I made that graphic.)

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From Out of Right Field: Unfair Advantages

2007-08-07T16:04:00.000-05:00

Editor's Note: This is the first WTB post for my good friend Ben. He is hilarious, and has been so gracious as to offer to write some stories "From Out of Right Field" from time to time. Treat him nice, and enjoy.

Recently, Michael Witte wrote a little piece for Editor & Publisher entitled “Exclusive: Barry Bonds’ Home Run Record Tainted by Mechanical Device?” in which he argues that Bonds owes at least some of his success to the giant protective pad which he wears on his right elbow. I applaud Witte for his efforts in exposing this instance of an athlete using a mechanical device to improve his game. However, why stop there, I ask? Witte, like the rest of the media, has ignored the most blatant of all machine-wielding offenders. What I am going to say next may shock some readers, so if you are easily offended, you may want to cover your eyes for this next part.

Like Barry Bonds, who clearly enjoys an unfair mechanical advantage, Michael Jordan should be stricken from the record books.

Let me repeat that: Michael Jordan should be stricken from the record books.

“But Ben,” you are probably saying right now, “I have never seen His Airness doing anything that would give him an unfair advantage in a game of basketball. Just who the hell do you think you are, going around saying these things about one of the greatest sports legends to ever grace this earth?”

To which I will respond thusly. No matter what anybody tells you, Michael Jordan did enjoy an unfair mechanical advantage. I am sick and tired of people looking the other way, refusing to acknowledge the sheer magnitude of his advantage. I am sickened by the silence of the mainstream media on this issue. I simply cannot bear it any longer. If nobody else is going to say it, I will—Michael Jordan is a cyborg.

There. I said it. Robotic implants have incalculably improved his abilities on the court. If Barry Bonds is going to be given an asterisk for his unfair advantage, MJ needs an entire pile of them. You have all seen him play. There is no way any human being can do the things that Mike can do.

“But Ben,” I hear you saying again, “Michael’s greatness comes solely from hard work and natural talent—not from some self-regulating integration of artificial and natural systems. There is nothing robotic about him.”

To which I reply: Bull!

I have seen the schematics. Hydraulic servos in his arms and legs give him inhuman speed, strength and agility. A hidden jetpack allows for dazzling displays of aerial acrobatics. Enhanced tactical sensors in his fingertips give unparalleled ball control. He has retinal implants that instantly calculate distances and angles which lend uncanny accuracy in shooting and passing. The reason he sticks his tongue out when dunking is because he has a micro-radar system mounted in there which guides his dunks straight to the basket. Telescoping arms make rebounding a snap. Self-recharging dual lithium-SOCl₂batteries give him a near-infinite supply of energy. Strategically placed synthetic diamond cooling heat sinks ensure a near-constant internal temperature. Artificial vocal cords can mimic any voice—frequently confusing opponents into giving away turnovers. Tank treads in his feet simply roll over anybody in his way while an alpha wave emitter in his knee emits a referee-confusing beam—eliminating any possibility of having a foul called against him. Special telepathy nodes in his brain let him read the other teams’ thoughts, enabling him counter their every move. Laser beam eyes vaporize any opponents who are foolish enough to even think about stealing a ball. Every part of him is modular and made of readily available, interchangeable parts—which make for easy maintenance, repair and replacement—even while on the road. Still don’t believe me? Then answer me this—why do you think the Bulls kept Dennis Rodman around for so long? His only purpose was to keep people from noticing the glowing ‘standby’ light on the back of Michael’s head.

Any way you look at it, Robo-Jordan enjoys an unfair advantage and is unstoppable on the court. For this, all of his ‘achievements’ should be stricken from the record books. He even has a built-in AM/FM radio with cassette deck and in-trunk six CD changer. My car doesn’t even have that.

It simply isn’t fair.

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