Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Steal The Raiders

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

The Oakland Raiders had the worst offense in all of football last season.

That statement isn't news to any fantasy football player, especially anyone that was unlucky enough to take LaMont Jordan with a first round pick last year. Accordingly, the Raiders' offensive skill players are being treated like lepers in fantasy drafts this season. LaMont Jordan is going on average at the 76th pick in ESPN drafts. Jerry Porter is going 125th. Daunte Culpepper is going undrafted. So are these wise choices by fantasy owners to avoid the Raiders?

No.

Fantasy owners need to examine the context of last season's offensive debacle in Oakland before they write off the entire team. There was a perfect storm of factors that contributed to making the Raiders offense one of the worst in league history;

Shell And Company: Art Shell and offensive coordinator Tom Walsh embarrassed themselves last season. They showed themselves to be relics from a by-gone era two men that did not understand how to run an offense in the modern NFL, much less a team. Joe Gibbs had the same problem in his first season with the Redskins, so he brought in Al Saunders to take over the offense. Shell and Walsh were not afforded the same grace as Gibbs however, and were canned by Al Davis after last year's 2-14 campaign. The fact that the Raiders were employing the most inept head coach and offensive coordinator combo in the NFL last season was the first factor as to why the Raiders were so awful last season. The second reason was also Shell's fault...

WR Drama: Art Shell and Jerry Porter did not hit it off last season in Oakland. So much so that Shell inexplicably benched Porter for almost the entirety of last season. In addition to the loss of Porter, Randy Moss decided to effectively quit eight games in the season. A good coach would have trouble dealing with the loss of two WRs during the season; for a bad coach like Shell, the losses were catastrophic.

LaMont's Injury: Last year was supposed to be the breakout year for LaMont Jordan. He was coming off a 2005 campaign that saw him score 11 TDs and have over 1500 yards of total offense. So how did Shell capatalize on Jordan's talent? By barely running him and never throwing the ball to a back that had 70 receptions and 563 yards receiving the year before. The misuse of Jordan by Shell was downright criminal, and Jordan's season ending injury in the 10th game of the season was probably a blessing. After Jordan went out, the ball carrying duties fell to Justin Fargas. That's a bad thing in case you are keeping score at home.

There were a number of other reasons for the Raiders ineptitude, but those were the main causes. They are also three areas where the Raiders have vastly improved this season. New head coach Lane Kiffin comes from USC with a reputation for running a high powered offense. His offenses at USC also utilized RBs in the receiving game. Kiffin finds himself with a big time weapon in LaMont Jordan, and unlike Shell Kiffin will not waste the chance to use Jordan in the passing game. Kiffin's offensive philosophy will certainly garner more points than Shell's did last year. Also working in the Raider's favor is the vast upgrades in offensive personnel that have been made during the off-season. Consider; at RB last season the Raiders had a hobbled Jordan a plus Justin Fargas. Now they have a healthy Jordan and have added Dominic Rhodes through free agency and drafted Michael Bush out of Louisville. At WR Porter (who had back to back 900 yard seasons before last year's benching) seems primed to step into the #1 role after years of playing second fiddle to Tim Brown, Jerry Rice, and Randy Moss. Joining him is Ronald Curry. At TE the Raiders used their 2nd round pick on the dangerous Zach Miller to replace the unproductive Courtney Anderson. At QB the Raiders have ditched the cancerous Aaron Brooks and have added both Daunte Culpepper and Josh McCown. Either of those new QBs signify an upgrade over last season. The Raiders did not stop there; they also signed one of the best FBs in the NFL, Justin Griffith, during the off-season. For the sake of comparison, lets see what these offseason moves look like take all together:

Lost:
Art Shell
QB Aaron Brooks
WR Randy Moss
TE Courtney Anderson

Gained:
Lane Kiffin
QB Josh McCown
QB Daunte Culpepper
RB Michael Bush
RB Dominic Rhodes
WR Jerry Porter
TE Zach Miller
FB Justin Griffith

The end result is obvious; the Raiders have signifigantly improved every single offense skill position since the end of last season. They also have a coach now that actually knows a thing or two about putting points on the board. The Raiders have also scored two offensive TDs in the first half of all three of their preseason games thus far. This isn't last year's Raiders team. In fact, it doesn't even resemble it one bit. So if you are looking for a steal in your fantasy draft, jump on Porter, Jordan, and Culpepper. They may not end up being studs, but they will end up being far more valuable than the price you will have to pay for them.

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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The Myth Of LJ

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

So late this week I got an e-mail from reader AJ that I think illustrates an important divide in fantasy football circles at present. AJ wrote:

"I am a huge fantasy football fan. I play in multiple espn.com leagues and I am in another one that is coming up soon. The reason this one is important is because I am playing against my friends so all bragging rights are on the table. My question is about Larry Johnson. Is he a stretch at the third or fourth pick of my draft? His line isn't what it once was and the Chiefs passing game is horrible. This means there will be 8 guys in the box keying on Johnson. So is Johnson a better pick than someone like Willie Parker or Joseph Addai? If you have the time to respond to my question it would be greatly appreciated."

What the question boils down to is this; how risky is LJ this year? As AJ outlines above, there are three major reasons that have been posited as to why LJ should be worn down this year. He had too many carries last year, his offensive line is in a shambles, and the passing offense is terrible. To evaluate where LJ should go in your fantasy draft in light of these factors lets examine them each individually:

The 416 Carries: If someone is telling you that LJ is going to have a down year, this is most likely why. As ESPN.com notes on their fantasy projection of Johnson;

"Since 2000, seven NFL backs have lugged 370 carries or more in a season. Collectively, that group averaged roughly 726 yards and 8 TDs fewer in the follow-up season. Four of them missed at least four games".

Pretty scary numbers eh? The problem I have with those numbers though, are that they are completely devoid of context and are very limiting in their scope because they do not factor in receptions. Consider this; in terms of total offensive touches last season, LJ toted the rock 457 times last season. For comparison, LT had a combined 429 offensive touches last year, including the playoff game against New England. Are LT's 429 touches going to keep anyone from drafting him #1? Of course not. In fact, check out Tomlinson's entire career in term of offensive touches. In 2002 LT had 451 combined offensive touches and had over 2100 total yards and 15 TDs. The next year he had 413 combined touches, 2300 total yards, and 17 TDs. Not exactly a down season right? If LT can still be an elite back after multiple 400+ touch seasons, why not LJ? If anything, LJ is the perfect back to have had such a heavy season. He played three seasons at Penn State, but was only the starter for one year. He has been in the NFL for four years but has only been a starter for two and a half. Think about that. LJ only has 3.5 years of "tread" on his legs. Don't let one heavy season of work scare you away.

The O-Line: The second big point that has been made against LJ is that his offensive line has greatly declined. Let's take a look at whether or not that is actually true. Last year the Chiefs were starting LT Jordan Black, LG Brian Waters, C Wiegmann, RG Will Shields, and RT John Welbourn. The main problem with the line last year was that Willie Roaf unexpectedly retired, leaving the Chiefs to scramble to fill the LT spot. They tried Kyle Turley and a number of other options, but nothing really seemed to stick. For this year, the line had another heavy blow with the loss of Pro Bowler Will Shields, but if you look beyond the loss of Shields the line may well be improved over last season. Welbourn has moved to RG, Brian Waters and Wiegmann are still starting, Damion McIntosh is an improvement at LT. The big question mark is Chris Terry at RT. Terry has had a number of issues off the field, and is a bit of a project right now. Overall though, the line really isn't bad. LJ still had nearly 2200 total yards and 19 TDs last year after losing Roaf, and this year he might have a more stable overall line to run behind, even with the loss of Shields.

The Passing Game: This is where the going gets tough. AJ raises an excellent point in his question; if the Chiefs start Brodie Croyle there will indeed be eight guys in the box waiting to hit LJ in the mouth. Luck has smiled upon fantasy players however, as just half an hour ago Damon Huard was named the starter for the Chiefs. Hooray! Fantasy owners rejoice! Huard played extremely well last season, and the Chiefs have the same exact offensive weapons as they did last year plus the addition of first round WR Dwayne Bowe. As long as Huard is back there, LJ is safe.

So the final verdict? LJ is more than fine for this year. Personally I think it is a toss up between him and Frank Gore at the 3-4 spots, but if he is there at #4 I would snatch him up. Good luck AJ, and if anyone else has a question they would like addressed just send it in to turnoverbattle@gmail.com.

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They Say Timing Is Everything...

August 15th: Former NBA referee Tim Donaghy pleas guilty to felony charges and admits that he provided insider information about player injuries and official assignments to gamblers. Donaghy also admits that he had been betting on NBA games, including ones he had officiated, since 2003.

August 17th: Former NHL player and Phoenix Coyotes assistant Rick Tocchet is sentenced to two years probation for his involvement in an illegal gambling ring that saw millions of dollars bet on various sports.

August 22nd: AEG and Harrah's hold a press conference to announce that they are building a $500 million arena in Las Vegas set to open in 2010, with hopes of convincing an NBA and/or NHL team to come to Vegas.

Is it just me, or does the timing of this announcement seem...awful? Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think the NBA is going to go anywhere near Las Vegas for years. Not after the Donaghy scandal, and especially not after the violent debacle that was the NBA's All-Star Weekend. (We all do remember that is where Pacman's infamous strip club shooting took place, yes?)

There are three major problems in sports today; performance enhancers, athlete's bad behavior, and gambling. Vegas is known for fostering two of those three things. In fact, Vegas wouldn't even exist today if it wasn't for gambling and bad behavior. So at a time when the NBA is fighting a huge PR battle in the wake of a gambling scandal, these businessmen thought it would be a great idea to start building an arena aimed at getting an NBA team? Can I get an honorary MBA just for noting that this is an awful idea?

The NHL angle is slightly different, though just as bad. In all honesty, the NHL would likely jump at the chance to go to Vegas. Word on the street is that the NHL is attempting to expand by two more teams in the coming years, and if Vegas wants them the NHL would most likely come. The problem with that is the NHL is bleeding money. The TV ratings are almost non-existent. Attendance is down. Players are starting to leave for Russia to make more money. And somehow the NHL's solution to these problems is to expand? To dillute an already thinning talent pool? If this Vegas arena stakes itself to the NHL, it very well could go down with the ship. Hockey has already slipped to at least 4th on the American pro sports radar (behind NASCAR) and is perilously close to being overtaken by MMA with no signs of anything getting better.

Can someone please explain to me how building this $500 million arena is a good idea...at all?

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Worst. Draft. EVER.

Last night SportsCenter ran their highly publicized fantasy football draft special. The idea was to have some of ESPN's football analysts do a draft so that the viewing audience could garner some insight from the "experts". It sounds like a great idea, except what actually transpired was far from what was intended.

What happened last night, was perhaps the worst fantasy football draft of all time.

The panel consisted of Chris Mortenson, Jerry O'Connell, Steve Young, Mark Schlereth, Sean Salisbury, Nick Bakay, Cato June, and Michael A. Smith. Out of that group it was glaringly obvious that only Schlereth knew much of anything about fantasy football. Just take a gander at what all of their rosters ended up looking like.

The odd final rosters only tell half the story however, as the draft itself saw the participants break almost every single rule in fantasy football. They drafted QBs in the first round. They drafted kickers before the final round. They didn't go 1-2 with RBs. They valued WRs over RBs. To put it simply, any of these guys would have finished dead last in even the most average of fantasy leagues. To explain why, here is a detailed look at some of the more horriffic mistakes that were made during the draft:

Round 1:

- Sean Salisbury selects Laurence Maroney at #5. Pretty odd considering the fact that Maroney is projected by anyone with half of a brain to be somewhere in the 8-12 range, not anywhere near #5.

- Peyton Manning goes to his former teammate Cato June at #7 which isn't really that bad considering it is an 8 team league. What happened after that however, has caused me to lose any faith in Michael A. Smith's sports knowledge. Smith was picking at the turn and had picks #8 and #9. With at least 5 elite fantasy RBs still on the board, Smith took Carson Palmer and Marvin Harrison 8-9. I repeat, Michael A. Smith went QB-WR in the first two rounds, and the QB was not Peyton Manning. Michael A. Smith knows as much about fantasy football as your grandmother, and maybe less.

Round 2:

- Cato June follows Smith's moronic moves by taking Thomas Jones at #10. Jones is not a bad fantasy back, but the pick is horrendous considering the other RBs that were still available, including...

- Shaun Alexander, who is selected at #13 by Mark Schlereth. Again, I reiterate; Schlereth is the only one in this thing with any fantasy knowledge at all.

Round 3:

- To lead off the 3rd round the 17th and 18th picks are Marc Bulger and Antonio Gates. Now, those would be good picks in a 10 or 12 team draft...if they were leading off the 4th round, with picks in the 40's. I would wager that this might be the only fantasy football draft in the nation not conducted by 9 year olds that will have Bulger and Gates both go in the top 20.

- Just so they can say that they broke the rule, our group of dunces engages in a WR position run in the 3rd round with Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, and Roy Williams going between picks 20 and 24.

Round 4:

- Our motley crew enjoyed having a position run in the 3rd round so much that they have another position run in the 4th round. This time it is the QBs, with Drew Brees, Jon Kitna, Tom Brady, and Donovan McNabb going in order from picks 27-30. Yes, that does in fact mean that Kitna was drafted at #28. Just awful.

Round 5:

- I am guessing that nobody informed these 8 guys that fantasy football success is almost entirely dependent on having good RBs. Evidently someone lied to them and told them that WRs were the key, as they engage in a SECOND WR position run in the 5th round, with T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens, Andre Johnson, and Marques Colston going in order from picks 34-39. Yes, that means that in the first 40 picks there were two WR position runs and a QB position run.

Round 6:

- Running backs? Who ever heard of drafting running backs? The awful aversion to the best position in fantasy football continues in round 6, as 7 of the 8 picks in the round are either WRs or TEs. The only sane person is Schlereth, who snatches up Clinton Portis all the way at #45.

- As for the crazy people, Michael (knows less than grandma) Smith picks up Vernon Davis with pick #41, followed by Jeremy Shockey going to Cato June with the very next pick.

- With the 45th pick Sean Salisbury takes Calvin Johnson, about 40-60 picks too soon.

Round 7:

- The position breakdown for the eight picks in round 7: 4 TEs, 2 D/ST, 2 WRs. That's right, no RBs taken between picks 49 and 56, and only one taken between picks 41-57. To understand just how bad this is, just take a gander at what happened in...

Round 8:

- So who are the RBs that are left? Julius Jones comes off the board at #58. Marshawn Lynch is picked at #62. Fred Taylor is selected at #64. It is criminal that those three lasted this long, but not nearly as bad as the fact that...

- Ronnie Brown lasts until pick #59. No, that is not a typo. That really is Ronnie Brown, at #59. The same Ronnie Brown that is being selected in the first round in some 10-12 team leagues, and the second round in every other league. The ONLY way I can explain this oversight is that the ESPN crew just forgot. It woudn't be the first time an ESPN crew forgot about a player during a draft show. Remember when Mel Kiper and company completely forgot Amobi Okoye during their mock draft show?

Round 9:

- The misses just keep on coming, as the Patriots and Chargers D/ST are selected before Ahman Green in round 9.

Round 10:

- Cato June selects Adam Vinatieri at #74. Evidently he thought that Michael A. Smith was getting too much of a lead in the "Dumbest Drafter" category and felt like he had to play catch up.

- Jamal Lewis and Jerrious Norwood finally come off the board at picks #77 and #79. Watching these "experts" do a fantasy draft is like watching a dating advice show hosted by Screech and Bill Nye the Science Guy.

Round 11:

- Round 11 sees yet another 8 picks go by without a RB being chosen, although Nick Bakay does see fit to draft Rex Grossman at #86. Yes, that sentence does mean that Rex Grossman was drafted in an 8 team fantasy league. It was the first and last time.

Round 12:

- DeAngelo Williams goes off the board at #96...finally.

Round 13:

- With all of the QBs, WRs, TEs, and D/ST that have already come off the board, you just know there is still a RB left. And...yep, there he is. Steve Young selects Carnell Williams at #99. Just to recap, a starting RB with little to no competition was drafted after 3 kickers, 5 defenses, and Rex Grossman. It is now official; ESPN's football analysts are NOT smarter than a 5th grader.

Round 14:

- Nick Bakay, the man who drafted Rex Grossman, follows up that stroke of brilliance by picking Eric Johnson with the 107th pick. If you were wondering, Johnson is a TE for the Saints.

Round 15:

- Finally, this thing is almost over. The dunces won't go down without a fight though, as they reveal their final ace when Cato June picks Chester Taylor with the second to last pick in the draft. This draft is just painful to look at.

Before you can appreciate those lowlight, you have to take a gander at some of the players that went completely undrafted during the course of this travesty;

QB:
Eli Manning
Bret Favre
Alex Smith

RB:
Brandon Jackson
Warrick Dunn
Kevin Jones
Chris Henry

WR:
Chris Chambers
Terry Glenn
Darrell Jackson
Mushin Muhammad

TE:
LJ Smith
Heath Miller

D/ST:
Vikings
Eagles
Bills

K:
Robbie Gould
Josh Scobee
Jason Elam


To understand just how bad that is, think of it this way; if you joined their league now and made a team solely of the undrafted players, you could probably still win a few games. Also, notice the fact that Drew Bennet, Santonio Holmes, and Wes Welker were all drafted, while Chambers, Glenn, Jackson, and Muhhamad were not.

So what are the lessons to be learned from this awful display of fantasy football ignorance by ESPN? First off, you should not listen to a single bit of fantasy "advice" that comes out of the mouths of an ESPN analyst. Second, ESPN does not take fantasy football seriously enough to prepare their analysts to discuss the topic. I do not exaggerate in the slightest when I say that an average high school male would have destroyed ESPN's paid "experts" in this draft. Third, don't listen to anything that Michael A. Smith has to say about NFL football. You'd be better off asking your grandma about it.

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Hayden's Sporty Birthday Bash

August 21st. One of the last days of summer. Kids are going back to school. The baseball pennant chases are heating up. The football season is just around the corner. All in all, it is a wonderful time of year.

This particular August 21st however, is extra wonderful. Why you might ask? Well today is a day that only happens once in a lifetime; it is Hayden Panettiere's 18th birthday. It is a glorious day, as all of the men of America can now officially watch Heroes without being sketchy. To celebrate Hayden's birthday, we would like to remind you that Hayden's career thus far has been oddly sports centric. How so? Just take a look back at some of the roles she has played thus far:


Sheryl Yoast, Remember The Titans: In Hayden's first major motion picture role she played the football obsessed daughter of T.C. Williams football coach Bill Yoast. This film was by far the best of the films on this list, and would begin a sports centered trend that continued when Hayden played...



Channing Walsh, Racing Stripes: I'll let IMDB tell you what this movie was about;

An abandoned zebra (voice of Frankie Muniz) grows up believing he is a racehorse, and, with the help of his barnyard friends and a teenage girl (Hayden Panettiere), sets out to achieve his dream of racing with thoroughbreds.

I can assure you that this film signified the first and last time Hayden ever rode Frankie Muniz. Horse racing brings the Hayden sport total to 2 and she wasn't done yet, moving on to yet another sport in her role as...



Gen Harwood, Ice Princess: I honestly do not understand how I missed this movie. No, I am not an ice skating fan, but I don't think I have missed many films that have boasted as stout a trio of femmes as Hayden, Michelle Trachtenberg, and Kim Cattrall. I thought ice skating was supposed to be cold.



Britney Allen, Bring It On: All Or Nothing: This movie was about cheerleading. I guess. I actually haven't seen it, but that is mainly because I already saw all of the important parts of the movie in this clip:

My guess is that it is all downhill from that point.



Claire Bennet, Heroes: Hayden had such a good time playing a cheerleader in Bring It On that she decided to keep at it, this time playing a cheerleader with superhuman healing powers. Now that Hayden is on Heroes every week you don't even have to go to Target and buy Bring It On off the clearance rack to see Hayden in all her skirted glory.



Hayden, Water Sport Queen: Well, this isn't actually a movie but...I guess it adds swimming to Hayden's sports portfolio, along with football, horse racing, ice skating, and cheerleading. Hopefully Hayden continues her sports career arc, which could mean future roles for Hayden in other sports themed movies. Like maybe one about tennis. Or better yet, beach volleyball.

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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Bye, Bye

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

Bye week. Next to "injury report", those two words are perhaps the most important for fantasy owners to pay attention to during the season. A fantastic team can be crippled by not paying attention to a bye week, and if you are not able to react quickly or well enough your QB or #1 RB's bye week can lead to a loss to an inferior fantasy squad. Most players are very careful about observing their RBs bye weeks when drafting, so that they never have more than one starter out at a time. What might be worse than having your two RBs out at the same time however, is having your QB and your top RB out the same week. If that happens, you can almost automatically chalk up a loss for the week.

To help avoid such a problem, I have compiled a list of the starting RBs that have a bye week the same week as each of the top 10 fantasy QBs:

Peyton Manning: Willie Parker, Frank Gore, Travis Henry (Marshawn Lynch, Tatum Bell)

Carson Palmer: Brian Westbrook (Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson, LaMont Jordan/Dominic Rhodes)

Drew Brees: Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis (White/Henry/Brown, Fred Taylor, Ladell Betts)

Tom Brady: Ahman Green, Thomas Jones, Carnell Williams

Marc Bulger: Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs

Donovan McNabb: Rudi Johnson (Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson, LaMont Jordan/Dominic Rhodes)

Matt Hasselbeck: Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee, Edgerrin James, Jerrious Norwood (Julius Jones/Marion Barber)

Vince Young: Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Reggie Bush, Deuce McCallister (Fred Taylor, Ladell Betts)

Philip Rivers: Jamal Lewis (Brandon Jackson/Vernand Morency, DeShaun Foster/DeAngelo Williams)

Jon Kitna: Wilie Parker, Frank Gore, Travis Henry, Joseph Addai (Marshawn Lynch, Tatum Bell)

Two players from this list jump out as me as problems; Peyton Manning and Vince Young.

Peyton: If you have Peyton Manning this year, the likelihood is that you selected him somewhere in the frist round. If so, you are already a little bit behind when it comes to the RB derby, as every single one of your opponents is likely to have a top ten RB while you are left with the scraps. Now take a look at the RBs that have the same bye week as Peyton. Were you thinking about getting Willie Parker at the top of the second round? Forget it. Travis Henry? Same. Marshawn Lynch in the 3rd or 4th round? Nix that idea too. Although Peyton will certainly give you big numbers this year, just remember that his bye week is likely to give you a headache both then, and during your draft.

Vince: Nevermind the fact that I don't think Vince is a good choice as your starting QB. Lets say you do pick him. Take a gander at the bevy of top 20 RBs that are going to be out the same week as Vince; Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Reggie Bush, Deuce McCallister. Youch. If you take Vince as your starter, make sure to pay special attention to the composition of your RB depth chart, or you could find yourself hurting come Week 4.


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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The Good News Injury

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

This weekend Travis Henry of the Broncos sprained the MCL in his left knee. What this likely means from a fantasy perspective is that Henry will see a decline on draft boards.

This is great news.

How so? First off you need to realize that Henry is already being undervalued in most fantasy drafts. Henry is rated as the #14 RB by ESPN and #13 by Yahoo. As of right now, all it takes to get Henry is a late 2nd round or early 3rd round pick. History would say that he will be much more valuable than such a pick. Henry's move to the Broncos has been much discussed in fantasy circles, but few people realize just how signifigant the move is for Henry's production. To illustrate, here are some average numbers from the Broncos rushing attack over the past five seasons:

Average Yards Per Rush: 4.72

Average Carries For Feature Back: 262

Average TDs For High TD Back: 12

Now lets say that Henry just has an "average" season for a Broncos feature back based on those numbers. Based on those numbers Henry would have roughly 1,230 yards and 12 TDs, which would be good for 195 fantasy points. That total does not even take into account any points for receiving yards, yet last season it would have been good for 9th best among running backs. The scary thing is that Henry is in fact a pretty good receiver out of the backfield, having had career highs of 43 receptions and 309 yards in 2002. For his career Henry has averaged 11.5 receiving yards per game, which over a full season would translate into 184 yards. Now add those 18 points to Henry's total and he would be at 213 fantasy points. Again, these numbers reflect what Henry's numbers would look like if he has an average season for a Broncos RB.

What this all translates into is that Henry will likely have a season worthy of a lower end #1 fantasy RB if he just has an average season. If he excells in the Broncos system, he could become a middle to upper level fantasy #1. Yet he is routinely available in the late 2nd and early 3rd rounds of fantasy drafts, and with his injury scared fantasy owners now have an excuse to drop him even lower. Don't be fooled; snapping up Travis Henry could be both a great value and the key to a great fantasy season, so be thankful that his injury will scare enough people off so you can pick him.

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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Final Round Sleepers

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

The final round pick. It is perhaps the most overlooked pick in fantasy football drafts, yet it can also be one of the most important. By the time the 16th round rolls around, most people are ready to go, eager to evaluate how their team is going to stack up. Most of the time the only players left in the final round are 3rd and 4th string WRs and RBs or low level QBs such as Brodie Croyle, Jeff Garcia, and Jason Campbell. Many fantasy players use the 16th round to finally pick up a kicker or a defense. In all these cases, the last pick is a throwaway pick.

I have news for you; it doesn't have to be.

Your last pick can in fact become a very valuable asset to your fantasy team, but in order for that to happen you have to take the time to carefully identify situations where a sleeper can evolve. For example, last year injury concerns and a criminally low ranking by ESPN and Yahoo allowed me to grab Kellen Winslow in the final round of all of my fantasy drafts. Winslow went on to be the #6 fantasy TE last season, a fantastic bargain for a 16th round pick. Onto the big question; who are this year's final round steals?

Jacoby Jones: Don't feel bad if you don't know who Jacoby Jones is yet. Jones was drafted this year by the Texans out of Division II Lane College after a great showing at the combine. Jones was known in college for being both a great receiver as well as an explosive kick returner. The Texans seem to have already penciled Jacoby in as their punt returne, but the truly intriguing thing about Jones is that he is currently in a close battle with Kevin Walter for the #2 WR position opposite Andre Johnson. If Jones were to get the starting spot he could become a huge steal in the final round of fantasy drafts. With defenses concentrating on Andre Johnson and Ahman Green Lane could find himself the beneficiary of lax coverage. Combine that with his potential for punt return TDs, and Lane could see his fantasy production as a rookie fall somewhere between Greg Jennings and Marques Colston. Don't believe in him yet? Check his stat line from tonight's preseason game; 2 rushes for 24 yards, 2 receptions for 32 yards, and an 80 yard punt return for a TD.

Devin Hester: Hester is a player that every fantasy owner should be familiar with. Now granted, his new role as a WR in the Bears' offense will not likely garner very many yards or consistent outings. Hester is a gadget player on offense, nothing more. What he also happens to be however, is perhaps the most explosive player in the NFL. Even if Hester only gets a minimal number of touches this year, does anyone really doubt that he won't be able to turn at least a few of them into scores? While Hester won't garner you many yardage points, he may well score the most TDs of any player that is available in the final round of fantasy drafts. You don't need me to tell you that TDs are fantasy gold.

T.J. Duckett, Greg Jones, Michael Robinson, and Tony Hunt: Why on earth would you want to pick one of these mainly anonymous backup RBs? Two words; Touchdown Vulture. Each of these backs are in high octane offenses where the RB they are backing up is either 1.) undersized or 2.) prone to fumbling. Every Frank Gore fantasy owner from last season remembers his goal line fumbles, and you can bet that Mike Nolan remembers them as well. Robinson should see the vast majority of the carries inside the 10 yard line. T.J. Duckett is of course the perrenial TD vulture, and backing up the small and fumble prone Tatum Bell sets him up for another 7-10 TD season. Greg Jones will be the short yardage cog of the three headed Jaguars rushing machine, and will greatly reduce the value of Maurice Jones-Drew. Tony Hunt is the ultra sleeper of this group. The Eagles are well aware of Brian Westbrook's injury history, and in recent years they have featured Correll Buckhalter heavily to spell Westbrook. Hunt, a rookie out of Penn St., could step into the short yardage duties for the Eagles as well as challenge Buckhalter for the secondary carries. Also, if Westbrook goes down to injury Hunt could become a real threat as a fantasy back.

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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Beware Maurice Jones-Drew

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

I'm sure you've seen the commercial. You know, the ESPN one for the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame, where a fantasy owner gives a teary testimonial about how Maurice Jones-Drew won his fantasy league for him. Great commercial. The dark side of that story however, is that that commercial and the subsequent overrating of Jones-Drew in fantasy football projections is going to produce the exact opposite result this year;

Maurice Jones-Drew will make you lose your fantasy league.

To understand why this is true, you first need to understand what produced the Jones-Drew phenomena last season. Jones-Drew rushed for nearly 1,000 yards, had over 400 yards receiving, and scored a mind-boggling 16 total TDs. There are many reasons for why Jones-Drew was able to have such a high level of success. Lets take a look at the factors that culminated in the perfect storm for Jones-Drew's breakout year;

1. Leftwich's Injury: Did you ever wonder how the Jaguars were able to give both Fred Taylor and Jones'Drew so many carries last year? The reason was simple; they weren't passing. Byron Leftwich was injured and missed the final 10 games of the season, forcing David Garrard into the starting role. The offensive coaching staff did not have nearly as much confidence in Garrard as they did in Leftwich, resulting in shift in offensive philosophy over the final 10 games of the season. In the first 6 games when Leftwich was the starter, the Jags averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game. Over the final 10 games they averaged 26 pass attempts per game. The end result of the change from Leftwich to Garrard was that there were more carries for Jones-Drew, as well as an emphasis on shorter passes, i.e. to Jones-Drew.

2. Taylor's Injury: People seem to forget about this one, but Fred Taylor was injured in the Jags 13th game of the season and barely played in the final three weeks. During those three weeks Jones-Drew accumulated 25% of his TD total, 29% of his rushing total, and 24% of his receiving total.

3. Jones' Injury: This is the one that nobody is taking into consideration. Last season the Jaguar's stud FB Greg Jones missed the entire year with a torn ACL. Not familiar with him? He is 6-1 and 255 lbs of pure nasty, and happens to be one of the best short-yardage runners in the NFL. While Jones was gone last season Jones-Drew assumed the short yardage duties and scored 7 of his 13 rushing TDs from within 6 yards.

So now that we've taken a look at what made the Maurice Jones-Drew monster last year, it is time to evaluate whether or not he will be in a similar situation this year. Here is a look at some factors that lead me to believe that Jones-Drew will not have anywhere near the same kind of fantasy impact this season:

1. Leftwich Returns: Remember how Jones-Drew emerged last season after the Jags lost Leftwich and became a run based offense? Well, Byron is back and healthy this year so that should reduce Jones-Drew's number of carries. Also keep in mind that Leftwich is also in a contract year, so an even greater emphasis might be put on the pass.

2. Jones Returns: Those 7 short yardage TDs that Jones-Drew scored last year? This year those carries will be going to Greg Jones. Right off the bat that takes away a ton of Jones-Drew's fantasy appeal. It is pretty hard to expect a backup running back to score a lot of TDs when he no longer will be getting the goal-line carries.

3. Taylor Remains: People seem to forget that Fred Taylor is still on the Jags, and that he is still their starter at RB. Not only that, he is still very productive. Last year he averaged a career best 5.0 yards per carry while gaining over 1,100 yards. Taylor also recently signed a contract extension through 2010, so anyone that thinks that Jones-Drew is going to be taking any of the starter carries away from Taylor this year needs to wake up.

4. Introducing Dirk Koetter: Dirk Koetter...that name sounds really familiar. Oh yeah, he was the coach at Arizona State for the past 6 years until he was fired last October. Oh, and he also happens to be the new offensive coordinator for the Jaguars this season. Now if any of you remember Arizona State's offense from the past 6 years you'll remember one key thing; they passed, and they passed a whole lot. Koetter runs an offense that is based on the vertical passing game, one that seems well-suited to a team that has Byron Leftwich and high draft picks such as Matt Jones, Ernest Wilford, Reggie Williams, and Marcedes Lewis to whom to throw passes. What this means is that the Jaguars are going to be throwing a lot more this season than they did last year. Last season the Jaguars threw 446 times while rushing 513 times. Now lets take a look at the pass / run split from the Jags' first pre-season game with Koetter in charge of the offense; 39 passes, 29 rushes. Besides the general tendency towards passing, Koetter's offenses have also been very kind to TEs. What that means is that Marcedes Lewis will likely get a large number of the short to medium range looks that would have otherwise gone to Jones-Drew.

Now lets play connect the dots. The Jags starter at QB is back and the new offensive coordinator loves to pass almost as much as Mike Martz and Dennis Green, so that means that the Jags will have fewer total rushing attempts. Greg Jones is back, which means that not only will he cut into Jones-Drew's total rushing attempts, but he will also take away the cheap short yardage TDs that Jones-Drew had so many of last season. Throw on top of that the fact that Fred Taylor is still the starter and that the new offensive coordinator loves passing to TEs in the intermediate passing game and I think it is pretty easy to see that Maurice Jones-Drew is in a situation where he is going to see his total carries, rushing TDs, and his role in the passing games drastically reduced.

So how is it that ESPN and Yahoo are ranking him as a 2nd round pick in fantasy?

To answer that question you must examine what stats those two sources are projecting for Jones-Drew this season. ESPN has him ranked as the #21 overall fantasy player, and has the following stat projections;

141 ATT, 823 YDS, 49 REC, 476 YDS, 8 Total TDs

With the emphasis on the passing game and the increased competition for backfield carries the 8 total TDs is a tad high for my taste. What is really absurd here however, is the fact that these projections assume that Jones-Drew is going to average 5.8 yards per carry. If you reduce that number to a more reasonable projection of 5.0 yards per carry than the projected rushing yards plummet to 700. The 49 receptions also seem a bit high considering that Koetter likes the TE better in the intermediate passing game, and the fact that Greg Jones may well be a better receiving option out of the backfield than Jones-Drew.

Yahoo has an even rosier projection for Jones-Drew, ranking him #16 overall with the following stat line:

1,172 YDS rushing, 111 YDS receiving, 13 total TDs (12.5 rushing)

Those projections, to put it kindly, are insane. To approach that number of rushing yards Jones-Drew would have to get 200 carries while averaging over 5.0 yards per carry. Jones-Drew is not going to even sniff that number of carries this year. No way, no how. The more asinine part of the projection is the 12-13 rushing TDs. For the reasons listed above, Jones-Drew is very unlikely to be near that ballpark.

So what do I think Jones-Drew's stats will look like this year? This would be my estimate;

700 YDS rushing, 350 YDS receiving, 5 total TDs

What that comes out to is 135 fantasy points. I don't know about you, but I think there are a lot of players in the first or second round that are going to get me more than 135 fantasy points. So don't say that you haven't been warned; taking Maurice Jones-Drew with a high pick is going to kill your fantasy team.

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Holliday Will Not Be MVP

We all know that the AL MVP race is down to Magglio and A-Rod. What about the NL race? Some people (Including USA Today, The Denver Post, and the guys at Epic Carnival) have been talking up Matt Holliday recently. Why so much love for Holliday? For one thing, there is no other consensus favorite. Injuries and slumps have take a number of perrenial NL stars out of the running for the MVP award. Let's take a look at Holliday's MVP resume (NL rank in parenthesis):

Holliday:
BA: .338 (2nd)
HR: 21 (14th)
RBI: 95 (3rd)
Team: 62-58 (3rd in NL West)


Holliday's numbers are impressive. He is both hitting for average and driving in runs at an elite rate. There are a number of factors however, that are going to keep him from ever coming close to the NL MVP:

The Coor's Bias: Anyone that has been a baseball fan in the past decade knows that Coor's Field turns good hitters into great hitters. It's a proven fact, and whether it is fair to Holliday or not his numbers this year are going to be viewed by many as being Coor's inflated. The obvious question then, is whether or not his numbers are indeed inflated. Here is a look at Holliday's home and away splits this season:

Home: .378, 15 HR, 55 RBI
Away: .298, 6 HR, 38 RBI

As you can see, there is a huge gap between Holliday's home and away numbers. The Coor's bias has set in among MVP voters ever since Larry Walker won the 1997 award. Don't believe me? Take a look at Todd Helton's line in 2000, when the Rockies went 82-80 overall and 34-47 on the road:

Helton: .372 (1st), 42 HR (7th), 147 RBI (1st)

Helton came within 8 homers of the triple crown that year for a team with a winning record. Where did he finish in the MVP balloting? 5th. If a near triple crown year for a winning team couldn't win Helton an MVP, Holliday has no chance at all.

Playoff Bias: As it stands right now Holliday and the Rockies stand 6 games out of the NL West lead and 3 games out of the NL Wild Card. If you took a straw poll, most people would say that the Rockies will be sitting out the playoffs this year. So how does that impact Holliday's MVP chances? In the past decade 15 of the 20 MVPs have come from playoff teams. The five players to accomplish that feat were Ryan Howard, Larry Walker, A-Rod, and Barry Bonds twice. That is pretty elite company, company with which Holliday does not seem to fit.

Homer Bias: The one downside of Holliday's numbers is his somewhat lackluster home run total (for an MVP candidate). Holliday currently stands 14th in the NL in HR and is on pace to hit 29 for the season. In the past 15 years only 3 of the 30 MVPs have had fewer than 30 homers; Ichiro, Barry Larkin, and Dennis Eckersly. They say that chicks dig the long ball, but it might be true that MVP voters dig it even more.

Now take a look at all three of those biases together. If Holliday were to win the MVP as a Rockie, on a non playoff team, while hitting fewer than 30 HR it would not only be suprising it would be historically significant. (The last player to be named MVP from a non-playoff team while hitting under 30 HR was Robin Yount in 1989) I'd say the smart money right now on NL MVP would be on Ryan Howard, Jake Peavy, and whoever makes the playoffs between Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.

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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The QB Cliff

Fantasy football is a fickle mistress. Every year the landscape changes, and the difference between first place and last place in your league depends on how you react to the changing climate. As a helper, Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet will guide you through some of the finer points of fantasy this year. Have a question or topic about fantasy football you'd like to see addressed? Send it to turnoverbattle@gmail.com

Every fantasy football player knows that running back is the most important position to fill in fantasy football. Even if you are stacked at RB however, your team can be hamstrung if you don't have a viable starter at quarterback. So who do you need to take this year to ensure yourself a good shot at winning your league? More so than many other years, the answer is simple; take one of these six QBs:

Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Carson Palmer
Tom Brady
Marc Bulger
Donovan McNabb

In ESPN live drafts thus far all of these QBs have been off the board on average by the 40th pick. So it will cost you a 1st-4th round pick to do it, but you'll be set at the QB spot all season with one of these guys. If you pass on the members of the above group, the production drop-off is extremely steep after McNabb. In ESPN drafts the next QB drafted is Matt Hasselbeck, at an average pick of 55.2. The QB cliff is so steep in fact, that only four other QBs not in the top six (Hasselbeck, Vince Young, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo) even have an average pick in the first eight rounds of ESPN drafts. Yahoo drafts are seeing a similar pattern, with the only real difference being the inclusion of Jon Kitna in the first 80 picks on average.

As far as the production drop-off after the top six, just go take a look at last year's final fantasy stats for QBs. There is a clear divide after the top six, so grabbing one of them gives you a tremendous advantage at the QB spot over 4-6 of the other teams in your league, depending on size. Think of it this way; if you go RB-RB-WR with your first three picks, how can you justify taking a guy like Brandon Jacobs, Randy Moss, Marion Barber III, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, or Ahman Green if Bulger and McNabb are still on the table? The talent drop-off between third and fourth tier RBs and second and third tier WRs is not nearly as steep as the drop-off at QB after the big six, so unless you have a dynamite sleeper pick you are better off going QB by round 4.

Now on to two QBs I think are overrated and two I think are great sleepers for this year;

You'll Be Dissapointed In:

Vince Young: I really can't remember a fantasy QB being as vastly overrated going into a season as Vince Young is this year. ESPN has him rated 8th among QBs, and Yahoo has him ranked 7th. Why do they have him ranked so high? If you delve deeper into the projections each site has for Young, the answer becomes glaringly obvious. ESPN has Young projected for 7 rushing TDs this season, and Yahoo has him down for 8.7. Unless Young hits those totals (good for 42-54 fantasy points) there is no way on earth you can project him as a top ten QB. He lost his workhorse RB in Travis Henry and the team just isn't very talented at WR, especially after losing Drew Bennett to the Rams this offseason. So just how crazy is it to assume Young will have 7-9 rushing TDs? Let me put it like this; Mike Vick has a career high of 8 rushing TDs, and only 21 total rushing TDs in his entire six year career. You're telling me I should just assume then that Vince Young is more of a socring threat on the ground than Vick? I'll pass on that one thank you.

Matt Leinart: Leinart is one of the middle of the pack QBs in fantasy this season, and if you want to take a flier on him as a backup he really isn't that bad of a choice. Penciling him in as your starter though, is a recipe for disaster. Most casual fans probably don't realize the impact that the head coaching change in Arizona from Dennis Green to Ken Whisenhunt will have on the Cardinals' offense this year. Green is known for running a high flying aerial offense, one that made both Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald into fantasy stars in recent years. As for Whisenhunt? Um...have you watched a Steelers game in the last few years? In Whisenhunt's three seasons in charge of the Steelers' offense Pittsburgh ranked in the top ten in rushing yards every single year, and in the top ten in passing yards only once. Translation; More Edge, less Leinart now that Whisenhunt is at the helm.

You'll Be Suprised By:

Jon Kitna: Do you want to know how good Kitna is going to be this year? Just think about it logically for a second. Last year he threw for over 4200 yards, had 20+ TDs, and ranked 7th among all QBs in total fantasy points last season, even with Kevin Jones missing a third of the year. During the offseason the Lions added Tatum Bell, TJ Duckett, and most notably Calvin Johnson to the fold. Add the fact that Kitna is operating in a Mike Martz offense, and his numbers should be just as good if not better this year, right? You'd be wrong, at least according to ESPN's fantasy projections. ESPN has Kitna porjected to throw for 3 fewer TDs and 900 fewer yards than last year. That has to be a mistake on their part. The Lions' offense loses nothing, and in fact adds three new weapons, and they are projected to be markedly worse? Did someone forget to tell ESPN that Mike Martz loves throwing to RBs, so Tatum Bell coming into town is actually a good thing for the Lions' passing offense? All of that doesn't even take into account that the Lions also made huge improvements at both LG and RT by acquiring Edwin Mulitalo and George Foster, respectively. What that all adds up to is this; Kitna could BLOW UP this season, to the point where he might even challenge for a spot in the big six listed above. If you can pick him up as your backup, or have the cajones to wait on him as your starter, you could come out looking like a genius.

Brett Favre: Go ahead and laugh. I am fully aware that Brett Favre has lost a ton of accuracy in recent years, and now throws interceptions by the bunch. That does not mean however, that he is no longer a viable starter in fantasy, especially in 12 team leagues. Just look at the numbers. Favre was 8th in total fantasy points among QBs last year and threw more passes than any QB in the league. Those numbers don't look like the will change much this season. The Packers will continue throwing like crazy now that Ahman Green is gone, and the WR corps is actually improved now that Greg Jennings has a year under his belt and #3 WR Robert Ferguson is returning after missing almost all of last year. Feel free to sleep on Favre, most people will. Some people however, might realize that getting a potential starting QB in the 13th round isn't such a bad deal.

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Agree To Disagree

When the Mike Vick dog-fighting scandal first broke, I didn't quite understand how opinions had become quite so polarized on the issue. There was one side that believed that Vick was guilty as sin, and as such should be kicked off of the Falcons and banned from football for life. On the flip side, there seemed to be a camp that refused to say if he was guilty, and thought that due process should have allowed Vick to play through the season. How is there such a chasm on this issue? The explanation is quite simple really, and if people would take a moment to examine what everyone else is saying they'd see that in this case differing opinions aren't contradictory opinions.

Guilty or Not Guilty: The first great divide in the Vick debate seems fairly straight forward. There is a camp of people that sees seven witnesses ready to testify against Vick, physical evidence of dogfighting at a house that Vick owned, and a money trail so large that it could only lead back to a rich person and comes to the conclusion "I think Vick did it". That is ok, mainly because people's opinions do not have a hard and fast standard of certainty. I have the right to believe something that I see as having a 51% probability of being true. You have the right to believe something you see as having a 1% probability of being true.

While we live in a country that does allow people to form whatever opinion they wish, we also live in a country that operates on the standard of "reasonable doubt" when it comes to guilt in a court case. So...what exactly is "reasonable doubt"? Here is the best definition, as well as the most helpful one in applying the concept to the Vick case; "any doubt which would make a reasonable person hesitate in the most important of his or her affairs." Now for those of you that think Vick is guilty (myself included), ask yourself this question; If your life / family / fortune was on the line, and it depended on correctly answering whether or not Mike Vick was guilty of all of the dog-fighting charges against him, would you hesitate? I know I would, because I haven't seen the evidence in the case. I haven't heard exactly what the witnesses against Vick have to say. I wasn't there, and neither were you (hopefully). In other words, I agree with the people that say that we shouldn't crucify Vick just yet and that we should let the . And I also agree with the people that think Vick is guilty.

Business vs. Fairness: The second aspect of the Vick debate is perhaps the more contentious one. The people that think that the judgement of Vick should be held off till trial also generally believe that Vick shouldn't have his job taken away from him without being convicted of anything. Is it "fair" to get rid of Vick before he is convicted? In the end, probably not. Is it smart business to get rid of Vick right now? Absolutely. You see, the NFL and the Atlanta Falcons don't have to abide by the principle of reasonable doubt. The NFL doesn't have to wait for a conviction to suspend Vick, and the Falcons don't have to let him play in the meantime even if he isn't suspended. In fact, the Falcons would be insane to let him play. Can you imagine the protests? The distractions? The difficulty of Vick preparing for games during the leadup to his trial? The Falcons would lose money, games, and PR points if they let Vick play. Is it fair to him considering that he hasn't been convicted? Nope, but life isn't fair. Look at it this way; let's say you own a 7-11. One day one of your workers (we'll call him Dua for this theoretical) is arrested and charged with dog-fighting. The story makes the front page of your local paper the next day. Now do you let "Dua the Dog-Fighter" continue coming to work until his, knowing that him working at your store will drive away business and perhaps bring harm to both Dua and your property? Of course not. You tell the guy to stay home. Easy choice there, and also an easy choice for the Falcons in this situation. Business decisions don't have to be fair, they just have to be smart.

So are all of these opinions different? Of course. Are they irreconcilable though? No. Maybe now we can all just agree to disagree, with a little better understanding of where everyone else is coming from with their opinions.

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And...I'm Back

Hello everyone. Sorry for the longer than expected absence, I stayed at my girlfriend's for an extra day because...well, she is my girlfriend, I don't need a reason for staying an extra day. I am back now though, and I am ready to resume my regular blogging schedule. Coming up I'll have a post on the Mike Vick situation, followed by a fantasy football series, and then hopefully Ben will have something "Out of Right Field" coming soon.

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This, Your Parting Gift

OK all, I am heading up to DC for the next 4-5 days so in all likelihood I will be doing little to no posting while I am visiting my lovely girlfriend. As I hit the road though, I just wanted to take this opportunity to thank all of the great people I have come across in these past four months while doing the blog. I started writing it on a whim because I was ticked off that Marty Schottenheimer was fired, and since then it has turned into a super fun and fulfilling experience. I just want to give thanks to everyone that has dropped by to read, and I hope you found at least something that was of minute interest while you were here. I also want to thank everyone that has been gracious enough to throw some links my way, you guys are all sweethearts. I also want to say an extra special thanks to Dustyn (Sons of Sam Malone), Sooze (Babes Love Baseball), Don (With Malice...), Brian (One More Dying Quail), and the rest of the late night crew at Epic Carnival for some of the more entertaning e-mail threads I have ever had the pleasure of taking part in.

Now on to that gift I mentioned in the title of the post. While looking at the Dlisted website yesterday at the "Derek Jeter gave Jessica Alba herpes" story I came across this story about Clay Aiken. Clay looks a whole lot different than he used to, in fact he looks EXACTLY like someone we all know and love; the esteemed Will Leitch.

Will

Clay

Have a good weekend everyone.

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Don't Forget Bronko

In the wake of Pacman Jones' pro wrestling debut a number of names have been invoked in discussions about pro athletes gone pro wrestler. Karl Malone. Lawrence Taylor. Even Bill Goldberg. There is one name that has been left out however, and it is the man who was both the greatest pro athlete to wrestle, as well as the greatest wrestler who happened to be a pro athlete. Who is this forgotten man?

Bronko Nagurski.

You see, Bronko didn't just moonlight in pro wrestling like Malone and Taylor. Nagurski wrestled on and off for 25 years, from 1935-1960. He is also the most decorated athlete ever to turn pro wrestler, having been one of the charter members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame as well as being the only college football player ever to be named an All-American at two different positions in the same season. In the pros Nagurski made All Pro at three different positions and helped lead the Bears to two championships.

Where things got interesting with Nagurski was in 1938 when Nagurski retired from football mainly because he couldn't get a raise and could make more money in pro wrestling. Nagurski went on to become one of the greatest pro wrestlers of his era, winning the world championship three different times.

In a nutshell, Bronko's wrestling and football prominence would be equal to a player like Brett Favre today suddenly retiring from the NFL and going on to become one of the most popular pro wrestlers. Actually, now that you mention it...that doesn't sound like a half bad idea...

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That Has To Hurt

Sometimes gymnastics is fun to watch. This is one of those times.

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The Greatest

Now that Barry Bonds has broken Hank Aaron's home run record the discourse among sportswriters has turned to the question of who is the greatest home run hitter of all time. Is it Bonds because he technically holds the record? Or is it Aaron, due to Bonds' performance coming in the steroid era while Aaron's occured in a pitcher's era? Or is it someone else?

The answer may suprise you...because there is no concrete answer. Determining who is "the greatest" home run hitter of all time depends upon what aspect of home run hitting you view as most important. Is it the raw numbers? Is it consistency? Is it efficiency? Is it regularity? Is it a comparison to the competition? The answer to each of those five questions is different, which is precisely why there is no singular home run king; there are five.

The All Time Champ: Barry Bonds
No matter how certain anyone is that Barry took steroids / the clear / the cream / HGH the fact remains that he has never tested positive for any performance enhancers, and he will never admit to it. Therefore there is never going to be an asterisk affixed to Bonds' record, just like there will be no asterisk affixed to any of the other records set during the steroid era. Though some people would like you to believe that Bonds is the only villain in all of this, there are more players than you can count that have been using HGH, steroids, and greenies over the past two decades. Likewise, throughout baseball history players have scuffed balls, spit on balls, stolen signs, corked bats, and used too much pine tar. Point being, if you took away every single stat ever accumulated by a baseball player accussed of cheating, you wouldn't be left with much of a record book. I'm not saying that it is right; I'm just saying that is the way it has always been, and until there is a complete and itemized overhaul of every single baseball record people need to lay off the asterisk talk. So if the raw numbers are what is most important to you, than Barry's body of work clearly makes him the greatest home run hitter of all time because like it or not his record will be staring back at you everytime you open the record book. Without an asterisk.

The King of Consistency: Hank Aaron
You think Bonds' raw numbers are inflated? OK. Lets say that the most important aspect of home run hitting to you is consistency. If so, Hank Aaron is your pick as the greatest home run hitter of all time. Aaron not only holds the record for most twenty-homer seasons (20), he also did them all in a row. During the peak years of Aaron's career he hit between 24-47 home runs every single year, and his career average per 162 games was 37 home runs. Aaron was a devastatingly efficient home run machine. He never had a 50 homer season, but he never had a single digit one either. If that sounds like the kind of thing you value as great, then feel free to declare Aaron the greatest. There are plenty of people that would agree with you.

The Juggernaut: Babe Ruth
Although Ruth stands at #3 on the all time home run list his home run feats are perhaps far more legendary than either of the two men in front of him on that list. The stats are well known; Ruth held the all-time home run record for an astounding 53 years. He held the single season mark for 34 years. He lead his league in homers 12 times. In both 1927 and 1920 Ruth hit more home runs than any other AL team. These are feats that likely will never be matched for the rest of history. There is no disputing the fact that Ruth is the most singular home run talent of any given era. Is that what makes a man the greatest home ru hitter of all time? That is for you to decide.

The Deadliest: Mark McGwire
The above metrics still aren't tickling your fancy? How anout this rubric for deciding the greatest; at bats per home run. By that measure Mark McGwire is the greatest home run hitter of all time, and it isn't even close. Just take a look at the top five AB/HR guys of all time:

1. Mark McGwire 10.61
2. Babe Ruth 11.76
3. Barry Bonds 12.93
4. Jim Thome 13.64
5. Ralph Kiner 14.11

McGwire's dominance in this category is tremendous. Big Mac also has three of the top four single seasons in thi category, trailing only Barry Bonds' record setting 2001 season. What this means is that if you had to pick one man to hit a home run in any given at bat, history would say that McGwire would be your man. And it isn't even close.

The Efficiency Expert: Ted Williams
This might be the category you wouldn't think of right off the bat, and it is the one of the most effecient home run hitter in regards to at bats per strikeout. Why this category? The evil twin to every home run is the strikeout, and shouldn't an argument about the greatest hitter of all time also factor in which power hitter was best able to be Dr. Jekyll without turning into Mr. Hyde? In looking at this stat for the hitters in the 500 home run club, one man stands out from the pack; Ted Williams. Williams only struck out once every 10.87 ABs during his career. While that number isn't great for a normal hitter, it is phenomenal for a power hitter. In a way you can view this statistic as showing who was the best natural home run hitter, the player that didn't need to take chances and swing from his heels in order to hit the round-tripper. If that sounds like greatness to you, Teddy Ballgame is your greatest home run hitter.

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Darren McFadden Is A Clown

Remember those crazy qoutes about Darren McFadden that came out during the SEC Media Days in July? Just in case you don't, here is a little refresher:

"Last Halloween, the most recognizable 19-year-old in the state went to his classes in complete disguise. Wearing a clown suit, complete with rainbow wig, oversized glasses, a fake cigar, striped shirt, enormous yellow pants and wide suspenders, McFadden could have struck a Heisman pose and still remained anonymous."

Man, that sounds hysterical. Too bad no pictures ever turned up of tha...wait, you found what?

That's right, here is Darren McFadden in all his be-clowned glory. Enjoy. (Click for a larger version)






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OJ Is Having A Bad Week

As if getting heckled during an interview wasn't bad enough for OJ Simpson, there is more bad news. In fact, there are all sorts of OJ stories floating around right now. To recap:


You're With Me, Killer: Now this one is just too strange. The fat kid from the upcoming movie SuperBad (AKA, Jonah Hill) is saying that OJ stole a woman from him at a nightclub in Miami. In Jonah's own words:

"All of a sudden O.J. Simpson walks by - in the nightclub. She looks at O.J., then she looks back at me and she says, 'Peace,' and then walks away and starts dancing with O.J. "He's famous for killing women and their friends! That's how pathetic I am. A night with O.J. and possibly getting murdered is better than some sort of sexual experience with me."



This is no game: The Juice's likeness is featured in the new video game All-Pro Football 2K8, which evidently does not sit well with the family of Ron Goldman on a number of levels. In fact, they have gone to court over it in connection to their 1994 wrongful death suit and won:

"Under the order issued by Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Gerald Rosenberg, any earnings to Simpson that "have been paid, are due or may be due in the future" for use of his image and likeness in the video game must be turned over to the Goldman estate.

Moreover, Simpson was ordered to turn over copies of his Take-Two contract and related documents, as well as any other financial deals he has yet to disclose."

The ruling does not however, prevent anyone who owns the game from putting OJ on the team named "The Assassins" whose mascot is "a hooded figure who makes stabbing motions with a large knife in the end zone when the Assassins score". You know Take Two if you really want to put a dent in Madden's market dominance you might try not turning your game into a PR nightmare. I hear it helps.


He did it!!!: No, I'm not talking about the murders, I'm talking about the aborted book "If I Did It". OJ had tried to say that he was just a reluctant participant in the entire enterprise, but the ghostwriter of the book is speaking out and saying OJ had the idea in the first place:

"OJ read the book, his book, several times. I made every change he asked for, and he signed off on it," Fenjves, a Hollywood screenwriter told Reuters.

"The whole book, the whole idea for a book, originated with OJ Simpson and a couple of his handlers," he said."

Like I said. Not a good week for the Juice.

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Black Flag Is Your New Anti-Hero

I have a confession. I don't really follow NASCAR that much. I will watch a race here and there, and they can be enjoyable, but the sport has never really captivated me in the same way as the Big Three sports. Well my friends, that may well have changed. I now have a favorite NASCAR driver, and his name is Robby Gordon.

Why Robby Gordon you might ask? He has cajones, that is why. He is a BAMF, as it were. Just look at what happened at this weekend's Busch Series race. I'll let Robby's wikipedia page recap the action for you:


"2007 Montreal Incident
During the inaugural NAPA Auto Parts 200 at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, Gordon was involved in an on-circuit altercation with fellow driver Marcos Ambrose. Gordon passed Ambrose to take the lead at the same time as a multi-car wreck was unfolding behind them; Ambrose spun him, under a yellow flag, to reclaim it seconds later. After an unusually long delay in sorting out the field for the restart, NASCAR eventually determined that Gordon would restart in 13th position. Gordon, who had a strong race all day, refused to go to that position, and was black flagged after the restart, and after spinning out Ambrose. Gordon did not come in for his penalty and was subsequently disqualified and given the final finishing position of 18th. Following the race, Gordon proceeded to do burnouts on the front straightaway as if celebrating his victory, alongside race winner Kevin Harvick. He announced in a post-race interview that he would appeal the result of the race. However, NASCAR suspended Gordon for the following day's race at Pocono. In a statement released soon after the NASCAR announcement, Gordon apologized for his actions but maintained that NASCAR made a mistake in telling him to line up in the 13th position."

In case the words aren't enough for you, here is the video featuring both spin-outs and the dueling burnouts:

I have to admit, I think this is awesome. If you watch the video it is pretty obvious that Robby was cheated out of first place on the caution by Ambrose, so why not take back that pound of flesh back? NASCAR already has its pretty boy in Jeff Gordon and who better to be "Bizarro Jeff Gordon" than a guy with the same surname? And don't think that Robby is just a flash in the pan; he also had my all-time favorite NASCAR incident back in 2005 when he walked on the track like a mad man to chuck his helmet at Michael Waltrip after Waltrip crashed him. Here is the video:

WTB salutes you Robby Gordon, and we will do our best to make sure your sweet new nickname spreads like wildfire; Black Flag.

(By the way...I made that graphic.)

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From Out of Right Field: Unfair Advantages

Editor's Note: This is the first WTB post for my good friend Ben. He is hilarious, and has been so gracious as to offer to write some stories "From Out of Right Field" from time to time. Treat him nice, and enjoy.

Recently, Michael Witte wrote a little piece for Editor & Publisher entitled “Exclusive: Barry Bonds’ Home Run Record Tainted by Mechanical Device?” in which he argues that Bonds owes at least some of his success to the giant protective pad which he wears on his right elbow. I applaud Witte for his efforts in exposing this instance of an athlete using a mechanical device to improve his game. However, why stop there, I ask? Witte, like the rest of the media, has ignored the most blatant of all machine-wielding offenders. What I am going to say next may shock some readers, so if you are easily offended, you may want to cover your eyes for this next part.

Like Barry Bonds, who clearly enjoys an unfair mechanical advantage, Michael Jordan should be stricken from the record books.

Let me repeat that: Michael Jordan should be stricken from the record books.

“But Ben,” you are probably saying right now, “I have never seen His Airness doing anything that would give him an unfair advantage in a game of basketball. Just who the hell do you think you are, going around saying these things about one of the greatest sports legends to ever grace this earth?”

To which I will respond thusly. No matter what anybody tells you, Michael Jordan did enjoy an unfair mechanical advantage. I am sick and tired of people looking the other way, refusing to acknowledge the sheer magnitude of his advantage. I am sickened by the silence of the mainstream media on this issue. I simply cannot bear it any longer. If nobody else is going to say it, I will—Michael Jordan is a cyborg.

There. I said it. Robotic implants have incalculably improved his abilities on the court. If Barry Bonds is going to be given an asterisk for his unfair advantage, MJ needs an entire pile of them. You have all seen him play. There is no way any human being can do the things that Mike can do.

“But Ben,” I hear you saying again, “Michael’s greatness comes solely from hard work and natural talent—not from some self-regulating integration of artificial and natural systems. There is nothing robotic about him.”

To which I reply: Bull!

I have seen the schematics. Hydraulic servos in his arms and legs give him inhuman speed, strength and agility. A hidden jetpack allows for dazzling displays of aerial acrobatics. Enhanced tactical sensors in his fingertips give unparalleled ball control. He has retinal implants that instantly calculate distances and angles which lend uncanny accuracy in shooting and passing. The reason he sticks his tongue out when dunking is because he has a micro-radar system mounted in there which guides his dunks straight to the basket. Telescoping arms make rebounding a snap. Self-recharging dual lithium-SOCl₂ batteries give him a near-infinite supply of energy. Strategically placed synthetic diamond cooling heat sinks ensure a near-constant internal temperature. Artificial vocal cords can mimic any voice—frequently confusing opponents into giving away turnovers. Tank treads in his feet simply roll over anybody in his way while an alpha wave emitter in his knee emits a referee-confusing beam—eliminating any possibility of having a foul called against him. Special telepathy nodes in his brain let him read the other teams’ thoughts, enabling him counter their every move. Laser beam eyes vaporize any opponents who are foolish enough to even think about stealing a ball. Every part of him is modular and made of readily available, interchangeable parts—which make for easy maintenance, repair and replacement—even while on the road. Still don’t believe me? Then answer me this—why do you think the Bulls kept Dennis Rodman around for so long? His only purpose was to keep people from noticing the glowing ‘standby’ light on the back of Michael’s head.

Any way you look at it, Robo-Jordan enjoys an unfair advantage and is unstoppable on the court. For this, all of his ‘achievements’ should be stricken from the record books. He even has a built-in AM/FM radio with cassette deck and in-trunk six CD changer. My car doesn’t even have that.

It simply isn’t fair.

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Yao Knows Invitations

Perhaps you are a little Yao-ed out from all of the Yao Ming wedding coverage yesterday, but I really can't resist putting up this invitation / poster/ IDK from his wedding. It makes it look like Yao and his bride are starring in some sort of bad Chinese romance movie:



All I have to say is, T-Mac would never pull some stuff like that.

One Stop Video Shop

There are a lot of great videos that get passed around the blogosphere, and most of the time I don't link them. Not because they aren't entertaining, but mainly because they took up a ton of space on the front page of the site, and I didn't want people to have to scroll down too much. That has changed with the new redesign however, as the expandable post feature now allows me to hide most of the videos if you aren't interested. So enjoy.

- LT's new Nike commercial; now that is what I call advertising. (via Epic Carnival)

- Want to see a grown man cry? Then watch Michael Irvin's Hall of Fame speech. (via The Fanhouse)

- The Mariners are resorting to having their mascot try to take out the competition. (via Bar Stool Sports)

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Brady May Not Be A Villain

As the Brady Quinn holdout continues the public opinion of Quinn has continued to plummet. So is Brady the villain in this game? A week ago I wrote an analysis of what Quinn and his agent Tom Condon should be looking for from the Browns based on the rookie contracts of similar players such as Aaron Rodgers. Here is what I wrote at the time;

"First off, he (Quinn) should get higher base compensation so move that $7.7 million to something more like $8.5 million. Then take the guaranteed money and move it from $5.4 million to the $7 million range. Next take the total possible value of the contract after incentives and escalators and move it from $24.52 million to about $28 million."

Up until now I had assumed that a large part of the delay in Quinn's contract negotiations was due to his camp asking for a contract worth substantially more than the deal outlined above. Today news has finally leaked of the parameters asked for by the Quinn camp, and they really aren't that outrageous;

"Under the plan proposed by the Quinn camp, the five-year contract would have a maximum value of about $30 million. If Quinn were to achieve the lowest-level escalators, the deal would be worth $20.25 million. Factoring in the lowest-level escalator values of all the other 2007 first-round choices over a five-year period, the Quinn model would rate as the ninth most valuable."

The hold-up on the Browns end seems to be over what amount of playing time will trigger the escalators in Quinn's contract. Condon's proposal is for Quinn to get an extra $5 million in the final two years of the deal if he plays at least 55% of the snaps in any two of the first three seasons of the deal or 70% of the snaps in any one season. The Browns want the escalators to be more difficult to achieve. The Browns are also looking to decrease the guaranteed money money in the deal from the $8 million proposed by Condon to $7.5 million.

So let me get this straight; Phil Savage is trash talking Quinn on the radio and painting him as the bad guy when he won't give up an extra $500 K in guarantees and wants the escalators to be harder to reach? Give me a break. Either he is going to be the starter or he isn't. If he becomes the starter within the first three years he will play well over 70% of the snaps, and if he doesn't become the starter he'll play well under 55%. What would be a more difficult escalator? And why tick off your future starter over just $500 K?

As far as the triggers for the escalators, All Headline News has this tidbit on what the Browns might be looking for instead of the triggers proposed by Condon:

"Quinn's agent, Tom Condon, wants the No. 22 selection rewarded with incentives based on playing time, while the Browns want a more statistical-based package, including perhaps honors and awards."

So Brady wouldn't just have to be the starter to get paid like a starter, he'd have to be a Pro Bowler within three years? That is more than a bit unreasonable from the Brown's side considering the fact that most young QBs sit out their first season and that Cleveland doesn't exactly have the best weapons on offense to help Quinn succeed right away.

The Browns should make this deal happen. The escalators as proposed above are in line with most young QB's contracts, and the total value proposed really isn't that high for Quinn considering his pedigree and the fact that he plays the game's most important position. For once the player holding out might not be the real villain here; it may well be Browns GM Phil Savage.

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Paparazzo: Levi Brown Seems Fun

Offensive linemen never get any of the fame and glory. I mean, even the most famous linemen aren't really celebs. I honestly don't think I could pick Walter Jones out of a lineup for the life of me. Why is this? Well, in today's sports climate it takes more than just being a good player to be famous; you have to be a personality, and most offensive linemen are boring.

Which brings us to Cardinals' first rounder Levi Brown. Do you know anything about Levi Brown? Nope, me either. I do know though, that Levi seems like an interesting character from these pictures. Enjoy:











Wait...wasn't he drafted by the Cardinals, not the Bucs?

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Dice-K is looking like...Derek Lowe

On Saturday night against the Mariners Dice-K continued his recent run of success, matching his season high with 10 strikeouts in a 4-3 win. Matsuzaka pitched 7 innings while only giving up 2 earned runs. The game was also his third consecutive quality start following three rather lackluster outings at the beggining of July.

On a little more interesting note...Saturday's game also continued a streak of nine consecutive Dice-K starts in which the Red Sox have alternated wins and losses. That means Red Sox fans can pretty much go ahead and put an L on the calendar right now for August 10th, when the Red Sox face Erik Bedard and the Orioles. Regardless of recent history though, the matchup of Dice-K and Bedard promises to be quite the duel of young stud pitchers.

Now on to the fun part boys and girls. Who is Dice-K looking like this week? The answer to that question resides all the way across the country from Boston, in sunny Los Angeles. This week Dice-K is looking like...Derek Lowe.

Dice-K 2007:
W%: .62
QS%: .65
ERA: 3.70
WHIP: 1.26
Salary: $6,333,333

Lowe 2006:
W%: .67
QS%: .59
ERA: 3.63
WHIP: 1.27
Salary: $9,500,000


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Barry Media Bias: Former Teammate Version

So now that Barry has tied the home run record, there are two things that you can expect; 1.) Barry is going to get walked like crazy. Seriously, nobody wants to be "that guy" that gives up 756. Barry walked three straight times after hitting 755, a streak that could continue for quite some time. 2.) The media is going to ramp up the lynch Barry campaign. While the first of those two points will have to wait until Monday, the media throwdown has already begun.

This time the media bias is coming out in this story over at ESPN about former Bonds teammate Brian Johnson.

I didn't know who the heck he was either.

In the article Johnson imparts the following bits of wisdom;

"You can make a fair argument that he may have been cheating," Johnson said. "Based on what has been documented, it's hard to dispute that argument."

"It was kind of a cloak-and-dagger society. Guys that were taking knew of each other and talked about things among themselves," Johnson said. "What I saw was that guys who were taking would never admit it, would never allow anybody to see. But it was pretty obvious to all of us that they were taking. ... Some people sold their soul to the devil and other people didn't."

Oh man, this is big news here! A former teammate seeing Barry huddling up with other steroid users? Saying it is hard to dispute that Barry cheated? This is such a smoking....pile of crap. What the story chooses to brush over is the fact that Johnson was only Bonds' teammate in the 1997 and 1998 seasons. For those not familiar with the Bonds' alleged steroid use timeline, that would be before Barry is alleged to have begun using steroids. Nobody has alleged that Bonds was juicing in '97 or '98...so why is Johnson such a Bonds expert, one worthy of being interviewed on TV and having his comments plastered on the front page of ESPN.com? The answer is that Johnson is not an expert on the situation, and that his interview is being spun against Barry just like the memorabilia story from yesterday.

It also really doesn't bolster ESPN's neutrality when this is on their front page as well:


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Blogger Banner Fun

I am thinking I might have to make Sunday "Meta-day" around these parts, as that is about all I seem to be up to at this point. To follow the theme, the playing around with WTB got me thinking...if I was at "Site X" how would I do their banner? Here are the results thus far of my mind wanderings:

100% Injury Rate:


Sons of Sam Malone:


Six Pack Sports Report:


WTB:


With Malice...




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"i think this guy is looking for you"

It's time again to recap the week at WTB in terms of Google Analytics. The top searches that brought people to the site all pertained to football players that had negative press during the week:

OJ Simpson
Brady Quinn
Ron Mexico
Vince Young

Sadly, Jamie Kotsay and the Snorg girl continue to fall off drastically as the weeks go on. This week did see two more searches for the classic "how to spot ghosts", which delighted me more than I can say. Now on to some of this week's best searches:

"i got a vick pitbull"
"how to make it to the d league"
"what is sis boom bah cheerleader"

While those are all good searches in their own right, the undisputed winner of this week's "WTB Search Of The Week Award" goes to...

"i think this guy is looking for you"

This one is just a little...weird. Who searches something like that? Are those song lyrics I don't know? My question would be, who is the searcher, the guy who is looking for someone or the person being looked for? The two possibilities hold such different outcomes. On the one hand, the searcher could be a dumb serial killer who is googling trying to figure out how to stalk people best. On the other, the searcher is a frightened person who is living every single day in fear of "this guy". Either way...they came to WTB. So welcome dumb serial killer or frightened person. I hope you like sports.

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Under Construction

You have probably noticed that the page here at WTB looks a little different today. I had become a little bored with the old template (pictured at right), so I decided to give a new one a whirl. So if you have an opinion, positive or negative, about the new look of the site leave me a comment on this post. I also have a poll on the right as to which template is better, so you can give that a whirl too if you'd like.

As for the header...I like to play with photo editing, so I have a number of pictures that I was considering. Here are all of them, so let me know which ones you like:







Feedback is appreciated, and I always welcome constructive criticism. Thanks guys.

Barry Media Bias: Auction Version

Today another Barry Bonds story has hit the wires and as usual the media is trying its hardest to spin the story against Bonds. The story is as thus; Some auction company called Mastro Auctions had a baseball memorabilia auction yesterday. Some of the items that were sold included an autographed Hank Aaron jersey, Aaron's signed rookie contract, an autographed Aaron rookie card, an unautographed Aaron rookie card, and Bond's 70th home run ball from the 2001 season. During the auction the Aaron items each sold for more than the Bonds ball. So as can be expected from the Barry hating media, here is a sample of some of the headlines of the story:

Sportsline: Aaron items outsell Bonds' No. 70 HR ball
ESPN: Aaron memorabilia fetches more than Bonds items

And then here is an excerpt from the AP story:

"The ball was one of only a handful of items that didn't meet its estimated selling price, while all the Aaron memorabilia met or exceeded expectations, Allen said."

Now for some perspective that is sorely missing from both the headlines of this story and the story itself.


Point 1. We are talking about home run ball #70, not the record #73. Why should #70 really be expected to break the bank in an auction? Because it is a round number? I concede that the ball didn't meet the expected price, but who the heck appraised it? Expected auction prices are not an exact science by any means.

Point 2. The comparison of a Bonds item to Aaron items is inherently unfair. The price of sports memorabilia is highly dependent upon time and historical context. So is it really that suprising that fifty year old pieces of rare Aaron memorabilia outsold a not terribly historically signifigant Bonds home run ball that is less than a decade old? Of course not.

Point 3. It is not like these were the only items for sale at the auction. The press merely chose to ignore the other items, focus on the Bonds-Aaron angle, and make a binary Good/Bad comparison. What a joke. Anyone who believes the press isn't biased against Bonds after reading a story like this needs a lobotomy.

Also, the assertation by the auction house spokesman that the steroid scandal will forever hamper Bonds memorabilia...please. The 10th best selling piece of baseball memorabilia of all time is Shoeless Joe Jackson's "Black Betsy" bat. I guess the whole gambling scandal really had a lasting effect there.

Sports Hotties You Don't Know...Yet

If you ask me, I think that the world of sports ladies needs an infusion of new talent. I am personally a little tired of hearing about Natalie Gulbis, Danica Patrick, and Maria Sharapova all of the time. So today is the day to diversify the sports hottie portfolio a little bit, and continue the work that was started with the recent inclusion of Allison Stokke and Taryne Mowatt in the sports babe canon. For your consideration, here are my nominees, sorted by sport;

Golf: Erica Blasberg
You've Heard Of: Natalie Gulbis, Michelle Wie
Erica plays on the LPGA Tour, and before going pro she tore up the college scene at the University of Arizona. This year is her first season with full exempt status on the LPGA Tour. Besides being one of the most accurate drivers on tour, 23 year old Erica is also the face of Puma's golf line.



Basketball: Ilona Korstin
You've Heard Of: Sue Bird, Lauren Jackson
Ilona is one of Russia's top players, and she played an integral role on Russia's bronze medal winning Olympic team in 2004. The 27 year old Korstin is a 6 foot tall forward. So does anyone have any complaints about a tall, pretty, Russian blonde? I didn't think so.



Soccer: Milene Domingues
You've Heard Of: Brandi Chastain, Heather Mitts
The rest of the world already knows all about Milene Domingues. That is mainly because in addition to being a model and one of the best female soccer players in the world, she also happens to be the first ex-wife of Ronaldo. Milene isn't just a pretty face. She also holds the world record for soccer juggling by a female, having juggled a ball 55,187 over nine hours when she was 17. Forget Beckham, I'd be more of a soccer fan if Milene came over here to play.



Softball: Whitney Baker
You've Heard Of: Jenny Finch, Taryne Mowatt
According to Baker's bio at UCLA's website she was the 2006 Washington Gatorade Player of the Year and also holds the Washington state high school record for strikeouts in a career with 949. In her freshman year at UCLA she started six games and threw two shutouts while posting a 2.65 ERA. As well as being an extremely talented softball player, she also happens to be quite attractive. In case you hadn't noticed from the picture. Though I'm sure you did.



Gymnastics: Jamie, Janelle, and Jalynne Dantzscher
You've Heard Of: Dominique Moceanu
Now, I have a confession to make. Jamie Dantzsher is my favorite female athlete ever. Feel free to tell me I'm wrong, but there is just something about her that puts her above everyone else in my book. So when I found out she had two twin sisters that were also gymnasts...wow. Both of Jamie's sisters followed in her footsteps to UCLA, though sadly her sister Jalynne has retired from the sport due to injuries.



Tennis: Sania Mirza
You've Heard Of: Maria Sharapova, Serena Williams
Women's tennis is the most babe centric of all women's sports, so it is somewhat difficult to find a true unknown hottie. So I decided to go the route of "non-Russian, non-blonde" and see where it took me. It led me right to Sania Mirza. Sania is the most prominent female athlete in all of India, and her court clothing has caused quite a stir among some Islamists. I say, keep it up Sania.

*As always, feel free to leave more suggestions in the comments, and I will update as needed.




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Who Is This Year's "Madden Team"?

A "Madden Team". Even if you have never heard the phrase, you'll recognize what I am talking about as soon as I define it. A Madden Team is a team that is inexplicably better in a videgame than it is in real life, whether that be because of injuries, suspensions, underachieving, or just plain bad rankings by the video game maker. The Redskins of the past five years come to mind. Bad to mediocre on the field, but in Madden you could wreck some people with the Skins. Another one that pops to mind is the Colorado Avalanche of the late 90's. They were good in real life, but the trio of Roy, Sakic, and Forsberg made them unstoppable in video games. The Atlanta Hawks have even been a Madden team in recent years, taking advantage of game developers' tendency to overrate young players to make a roster of Josh Smith, Josh Childress, and Marvin Williams much more formidable than it should be.

So who is it going to be in this year's version of Madden? Here are a few early candidates;


Chicago Bears:
No, this doesn't mean that Rex Grossman to be vastly overrated. The Bears' appeal as a potential Madden Team stems entirely from one man; Devin Hester. As has been previously discussed, while the Bears' move of Hester to WR could have minimal impact on the real NFL season it could potentially transform the Bears into a Madden juggernaut. Adding Hester and his first ever 100 speed rating to the offensive side of the ball could lead to players exploiting his abilities in a Reggie Bush type role. If the Madden developers give Hester a catch rating high enough that he can grab a swing pass 4/5 times, watch out. The defense is already stacked, and the addition of Hester just might Rex-proof the Bears' virtual offense.


Detroit Lions:
Even though a gimpy Kevin Jones might not make much of an impact for the Lions this year, he may be the key to the Lions offense being hellish on Madden this year. Jones had an 87 overall rating on last year's game and this year he will be joined in the Lions backfield by Tatum Bell (84 last year) and TJ Duckett (84 last year). The trio of Jones, Bell, and Duckett will give players the best situational set of RBs (besides LT, LT, and LT for the Chargers) in the game. Jones will be a decent every-down back, but the added luxury of having the speedy Bell as a 3rd down / receiving back and having the game's top short yardage guy in Duckett will create matchup nightmares for opposing defenders. That doesn't even take into account that the Lions will also add Calvin Johnson to the WR corps along with Roy Williams, making the virtual version of the Lions offense truly fearsome.


New York Giants:
The Giants have been one of the biggest Madden Teams in recent years, and that doesn't look to change this year. On defense the Giants could have a huge real life/video game discrepancy if Michael Strahan does in fact retire. Strahan had a 97 rating last year, and shouldn't fall off much this year. Where the video game Giants are truly exceptional though, is on offense. For starters, Eli Manning and Jeremy Shockey are always overrated. It has been revealed that Shockey will be a 92 in this year's game, and in spite of being one of the lowest rated QBs in the league since he has been drafted Eli Manning somehow continues to get Madden ratings in the upper 80's (88 last year). Not only do the Giants have overrated players, they have players whose skills are uniquely suited to exploit some of Madden's game play weaknesses. For example, Plaxico Burress' height makes it nearly impossible to stop a player using the Giants from completing high balls to Plaxico on quick slant patterns. In addition to Plaxico the Giants also have Brandon Jacobs, who has one of the highest "Trucking" ratings in the game. What that means is that pretty much anytime a player wants, they can slam Jacobs straight up the gut for 3-4 yards, even on higher difficulty settings. To make matters worse this year, Jacobs overall rating has risen from 80 to 85 and he is joined in the backfield by Reuben Droughns, who also has an extremely high truck rating. One of my friends is a highly rated Madden player on PC, and he uses the Giants and these two strategies almost exclusively.


New England Patriots:
If you didn't already know, the Patriots are the highest rated team in this year's game with a 97 overall team rating. I'm not saying that they don't deserve to be rated that highly but there are a few factors that could cause them to be almost unstoppable in Madden, kind of like how the Colorado Avalanche were good in real life yet unstoppable in video game form. The Patriots have two linebackers that may or may not have much of an impact in real life depending on injuries (Teddy Bruschi and Roosevelt Colvin) who will still be highly rated in the game (Both were rated 89 overall last year). The video game Patriots could also have the services of Asante Samuel even if the real player sits out until week 10. Add those three wild cards to a defense that already features highly rated players such as Rodney Harrison, Mike Vrabel, Richard Seymour, Eugene Wilson, Vince Wilfork, and Adalius Thomas, and you can see why the video game Patriots D will be extremely formidable. On offense the Patriots added Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Dante Stallworth to the WR corp, suddenly turning a poor unit into one of the top 10 in the game. Adding those weapons to Tom Brady and Laurence Maroney will make the Patriots one ridiculously good offense.

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If Babes Were Baseball Players

The trading deadline is past. Barry isn't hitting homers. A-Rod isn't hitting homers. Tom Glavine isn't winning. What is there left to talk about? I know; if today's celeb bikini beach crew were baseball players, who would they be?

Brooke Hogan = Barry Bonds

Lets compare Brooke Hogan and Barry Bonds...artificially enhanced? Check and Check. Looks like a man? Check and Check. Famous fathers? Check and Check. Steroids coursing through their veins? Check and Check. (Poor Brooke was born with em)

Cindy Crawford = Roger Clemens

Now this is how you would want to look when you are in your 40's. No, not like Clemens, like Cindy. Do you realize that she is 41 years old? Good grief. The Rocket is the only major leauger that is throwing heat equal to Cindy's at such an advanced age.

Britney Spears = Barry Zito

Isn't it a shame to see a once promising career go down in flames? This duo has gone from winning Grammys and Cy Youngs to losing hair and baseball games. Even though Zito's fastball has fallen into the 80's, Britney's hotness factor has fallen even lower.

Lindsay Lohan = Elijah Dukes

Both Lohan and Dukes seem to have all the right tools. Potential. Perfect physiques. Power. Too bad they also have something else in common; breaking the law. Between Lindsay's DUIs and Elijah's myriad of troubles, we may not see much of either of them except for on cable news gossip shows. (Interesting note; The picture for this one, with no cropping of my own, came out to exactly 666 pixels in width. I'm not sayin...I'm just sayin.)

Hayden Panettiere = Hanley Ramirez

They're both young. They're both sleek. They're both poised to become huge stars within the next year or two. And they both one of them looks great in bikinis.

Hillary Duff = Pittsburgh Pirates

Hillary sees all of the attention that Lindsay, Hayden, and Paris get for romping around in bikinis, so she decided to give it a try. When she does it though...it is just a little awkward. Kind of like how the Pirates wanted to feel like the Yankees and Red Sox for a day, so they went out and traded for a big money player in Matt Morriss. It is just that when the Pirates try to spend money, they do it awkwardly.

Paris Hilton = Alex Rodriguez

People will say that Paris and Alex are both spoiled rich, which is probably true. In their defense however, they are both extremely good at what they do. A-Rod is the best player in the majors right now and Paris does her best giving Fox News something to thumb their nose at every night. They also both have embarrassing incidents in their past, Paris with her sex tape and Alex with his Toronto stripper.

*As always, feel free to leave more suggestions in the comments, and I will update as needed.

UPDATE:

Lauren Conrad = Ernie Banks

Anonymous said...
"I would put LC from the Hills together with Ernie Banks...both are/were perpetually with a loser."

Tara Reid = Pat Burrell

Anonymous said...
"5 Years ago you would've done anything to meet Tara or have Burrell on your team, but now they are used up shells of what they once were and you just wish they'd take there old saggy bodies and go into hiding!"





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Vince Young Has Your Back Mr. Roby

Training camp fights happen every year in the NFL. It is as much a certainty as rookie holdouts and false Patriots' injury reports. What isn't as common as training camp fights though, are training camp fights involving a franchise player. That is exactly what happened at Titans camp on Wednesday, as Vince Young took exception to a nasty hit applied to TE Courtney Roby by safety Donny Nickey. Here is the video of the altercation (Video via NewsChannel 5.com);

So that you don't think that Vince Young is completely overreacting in this situation, here is a bit of context on the fight;

"A play earlier, Nickey had leveled receiver Joel Filani with a clean hit in the middle of the field as Filani jumped to try to corral a pass."

This might have been one thing if Nickey was a big time player, but we are talking about a guy who primarily plays special teams. For a guy like that to put a big hit on a WR, put a dirty hit on a TE, and then try to fight the franchise QB...well, lets just say Mr. Nickey better hope that the Titans' roster cuts are kind this year.

As for Vince Young? It would always be bad for a QB to throw a punch with his throwing hand, but also consider the fact that Young is on the cover of the upcoming Madden 2008. Given the history of the Madden Curse he is lucky he didn't shatter his hand into a million pieces on Nickey's helmet.

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Before You Declare A Winner...

In the aftermath of the Kevin Garnett trade every sportswriter, blogger, and watercooler guy has jumped in to declare a definitive "winner" and a definitive "loser" in the deal. The thing is though, it is way too early to make such a determination. I am not suggesting that we need to see how Garnett plays with the Celtics. My hesitation involves the two most underrated assests involved in the trade; the two first round picks.

The "future first round pick" in the NBA is the equivalent of the "player to be named later" in baseball trades. The pick usually remains unnoticed until the draft comes around, at which time everyone says "Man, how are the Bulls picking 9th this year?" (If you were wondering, the answer to that question is the Eddy Curry deal with New York.) Not only will the Timberwolves have the Celtics pick (probably somewhere between 14-20), but they also get their own first round pick back that they had traded to Boston in the Ricky Davis deal. If the Wolves are as bad the next couple of years as some people think they will be, that pick very well could turn out to be a top 5 selection, which could completely change the complexion of the Garnett trade.

For the sake of fun, here is a look at the top ten players that were selected with picks that were traded before the draft;


10. Ron Artest
Drafted: #16 by the Bulls in 1999
Pick From: Phoenix Suns

9. Michael Finley
Drafted: #21 by the Suns in 1995
Pick From: LA Lakers

8. Antoine Walker
Drafted: #6 by the Celtics in 1996
Pick From: Dallas Mavericks

7. Emeka Okafor
Drafted: #2 by the Bobcats in 2004
Pick From: LA Clippers

6. Shawn Kemp
Drafted: #17 by the Sonics in 1989
Pick From: Philadelphia 76ers

5. Detlef Schrempf
Drafted: #8 by the Mavericks in 1985
Pick From: Cleveland Cavaliers

4. Shawn Marion
Drafted: #9 by the Suns in 1999
Pick From: Dallas Mavericks

3. Scottie Pippen
Drafted: #5 by the Sonics in 1987
Pick From: New York Knicks

2. James Worthy
Drafted: #1 by the Lakers in 1982
Pick From: Cleveland Cavaliers

1. Charles Barkley
Drafted: #5 by the 76ers in 1984
Pick From: LA Clippers

I have to admit, it is pretty interesting that there are some repeat offenders on this list. The Clippers traded away Charles Barkley and Emeka Okafor, the Cavs traded James Worthy and Detlef Schrempf, and the Mavs traded both Shawn Marion and Antoine Walker. If one of the first round picks from the Garnett trade turns out like one of these, perhaps the Wolves will come out looking a lot better than people are giving them credit for right now.

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Jerry Jones Says "Slooooow Down"

Jerry Jones is mad at someone.

Contract holdout Gregg Ellis? Nope.
T.O.? Nope.
New coach Wade Phillips? Not him either.
Redskins owner Dan Snyder? Probably, but he isn't who we are talking about.

Jones is actually a little miffed at his new defensive coordinator Brian Stewart for having the audacity to have the defensive lineman...ugh, it is so disgusting I can barely even say it...he dared to have the defensive linemen run sprints:

Jones was upset with defensive coordinator Brian Stewart after Stewart made the defensive linemen run sprints Monday that left Hatcher with a strained left hamstring.

At a coaches meeting following practice, Jones was angry about the drill being run without the players warming up.

Hatcher was injured when Stewart made the linemen run during special teams practice Monday at the Alamodome. Hatcher, who tied for the team lead with seven quarterback pressures last season, is day-to-day, and he has a slight limp.

Seriously, what on earth was Stewart thinking? Asking a defensive lineman to run more than a few feet at a time? At least Jerry Jones is around to protect these precious creatures, as he obviously appreciates the rare and fragile beings that are linemen. Can't Stewart understand that special teams practice is a time for linemen to drink Gatorade, lie down, have grapes fed to them by concubines, and just generally be fawned over? Jones might need to re-think his hiring of Stewart, I mean, who wants a coach that is actually trying to make the team better?

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