Monday, July 30, 2007

Ainge's Risk

The story that won't die has reared its head once again; Kevin Garnett might be traded.

The punchline to this joke? The trade being discussed (and in some reports the trade that is done) is KG going to Boston.

Didn't he veto that one already?

This time around the landscape is a little different from both the Celtics' and KG's perspective. For KG, Ray Allen being added to the roster along with Paul Pierce now makes Boston look a lot more attractive, perhaps attractive enough to sign a long-term extension with the Celtics. For the Celtics, having three All-Stars (Pierce, Garnett, and Allen) looks a lot better on paper than having two, and would certainly push them inot the Finals out of the weak East. Right?

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but sometimes 2 can be greater than 3. In this case adding either KG or Ray Allen, alone, could have theoretically benefited the Celtics in both the short and long term. Adding both players however, is going to essentially gut the entire Celtics roster. Just take a look at what the Celtics are reported to be giving up in the KG trade;

Al Jefferson
Gerald Green
Sebastian Telfair
Theo Ratliff

Also take a look at what they already gave up for Allen;

Jeff Green
Delonte West
Wally Szczerbiak

Taken alone, both trades would have left the Celtics with some talent to develop around their newly imported All Star. Both trades though? As great as Allen and KG are and have been in their careers, you are talking about two men in their 30's that are likely on the downsides of their careers. To get these two players the Celtics are sacrificing two decent young talents (West and Telfair), two youngsters that could become All Stars (J. Green and G. Green), and one young guy who will be an All Star, and soon (Jefferson).

In spite of the talent purge that would take place if KG were to come to town, in the mind of Danny Ainge it would be worth it if the move led to an NBA championship. The obvious question then, is will adding KG bring a title to Boston? The answer is by no means simple. Having two All Stars on one team can be hard enough (See; Nuggets, Denver), but having three? The success of the deal would hinge entirely on the ability of Pierce, Allen, and KG to come together as a cohesive unit. Whether they will be able to or not is anyone's guess.

So lets just suppose that the experiment does go pretty well. KG leads the Celtics to the Eastern Conference championship. Then what? Would a Celtics team without a PG, without a C, and without any bench depth whatsoever be able to beat the Spurs? The Suns? The Mavs? No way on earth would that happen. In a best case scenario the Celtics might win the East a couple of times in the next 3-4 years. Barring a major dose of luck in the draft however, the Celtics will not be able to add any players of substance to help their All Star trio over the hump to becoming NBA champs. And the aftermath of such a 3-4 year run could be ugly. Aging stars Pierce, Allen, and Garnett will fall off in productivity while their contracts continue to rise, and there won't be a Gerald Green, Jeff Green, or Al Jefferson waiting in the wings to pick up the slack. They will all be too busy playing on the Western Conference All Star team.

Ballhype: hype it up!


loren said...

Ryan Gomes is supposed to be included in the KG deal according to Shoals.

And the Celts have Rajon Rondo as their PG, who while not great, is better than some starting points out there.

The question is if G Green goes T-Mac (whom he is oft compared to) next year and explodes the year after being traded.

Hank Worrell said...

Gomes too? Grief. I was going off of the Draft Express report. Rando is ok, and an above average defender, but as far as against the West....Rando would get eaten alive by Parker, Nash, Harris, and Williams.

loren said...

But the Boston Globe claims that (I don't believe it would be possible) Al Jefferson is not included, so I'm going to say until the official trade report comes out, all rumors are jsut that.

I'd say Rondo was at least on the same level as Eric Snow.

loren said...

which isn't saying much but Snow got them through the ECF

Hank Worrell said...

No Jefferson? Wow. If that is true McHale is a freaking idiot...which is true actually.

loren said...

Well, that rumor was short-lived... now reporting Jefferson, Green, Gomes, Telfair, Ratliff, and two first round picks.

Thus destroying all hpe for the city of Boston.

Hank Worrell said...

Seriously...they would be dealing away every piece of young talent they have except Rando and Perkins, plus the two first round picks would keep them from getting any help in the future. This trade will cripple them. Again, the Allen trade OR the Garnett trade would have been good, not both.

Hank Worrell said...

For the sake of is what the Celtics would have other than Allen, Pierce, and KG if this trade were to go through;

Rajon Rando
Kendrick Perkins
Brian Scalabrine
Tony Allen
Leon Powe
Brandon Wallace
Glen Davis


Simon said...

As a Celtic fan I'm pissed. I agree with you 100% that this deal sucked and leaves the Celtics roster fleeced.

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